Society can be seen as a superorganism that can be formalized as nested hiearchy of Active Inference agents,<ref>[https://direct.mit.edu/books/oa-monograph/5299/Active-InferenceThe-Free-Energy-Principle-in-Mind Active Inference: The Free Energy Principle in Mind, Brain, and Behavior, Karl Friston et al., 2022]</ref><ref>[[Entropy | Free Full-Text | An Active Inference Model of Collective Intelligence]([Entropy | Free Full-Text | An Active Inference Model of Collective Intelligence]([Entropy | Free Full-Text | An Active Inference Model of Collective Intelligence]([Entropy | Free Full-Text | An Active Inference Model of Collective Intelligence]([Entropy | Free Full-Text | An Active Inference Model of Collective Intelligence](https://www.mdpi.com/1099-4300/23/7/830)))))/htm An Active Inference Model of Collective Intelligence, Rafael Kaufmann et al., 2021]</ref><ref>[[- YouTube]([- YouTube](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v===QktnfpbYx7M)) The Romance of Reality, Universal Bayesianism, Bobby Azarian et al., 2023]</ref><ref>[[[2306.08014] Realising Synthetic Active Inference Agents, Part I: Epistemic Objectives and Graphical Specification Language]([[2306.08014] Realising Synthetic Active Inference Agents, Part I: Epistemic Objectives and Graphical Specification Language](https://arxiv.org/abs/2306.08014)) Realising Synthetic Active Inference Agents, Part I: Epistemic Objectives and Graphical Specification Language, Magnus Koudahl et al., 2023]</ref><ref>[[Principled Societies Project Home]([Principled Societies Project Home]([Principled Societies Project Home]([Principled Societies Project Home]([Principled Societies Project Home](https://principledsocietiesproject.org/))))) Science-Driven Societal Transformation, Part III: Design, John C. Boik, 2021]</ref><ref>[[2023 Course: "Constructing Cultural Landscapes: Active Inference for the Social Sciences"]([2023 Course: "Constructing Cultural Landscapes: Active Inference for the Social Sciences"](https://activeinferenceinstitute.substack.com/p/2023-course-constructing-cultural)) Constructing Cultural Landscapes: Active Inference for the Social Sciences, Active Inference Institute, 2023]</ref> that can be analyzed using a lot of other mathematical tools.<ref>[[Evolutionary Game Theory (Stanford Encyclopedia of Philosophy)]([Evolutionary Game Theory (Stanford Encyclopedia of Philosophy)]([Evolutionary Game Theory (Stanford Encyclopedia of Philosophy)]([Evolutionary Game Theory (Stanford Encyclopedia of Philosophy)]([Evolutionary Game Theory (Stanford Encyclopedia of Philosophy)]([Evolutionary Game Theory (Stanford Encyclopedia of Philosophy)]([Evolutionary Game Theory (Stanford Encyclopedia of Philosophy)](https://plato.stanford.edu/entries/game-evolutionary/))))))) Evolutionary Game Theory, Stanford Encyclopedia of Philosophy]</ref><ref>[[Physics - A New Science for Describing Unhealthy Online Environments]([Physics - A New Science for Describing Unhealthy Online Environments]([Physics - A New Science for Describing Unhealthy Online Environments](https://physics.aps.org/articles/v16/89))) A New Science for Describing Unhealthy Online Environments using nonlinear fluid dynamics, Elisabeth Wilhelm, 2023]</ref><ref>[[- YouTube]([- YouTube](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v===MNa8IIz3Kw8)) Four Layer Model of Social Systems, Jordan Hall, 2017]</ref><ref>[[- YouTube](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v===XzFEgR4tHa0) The Sombrero (Symmetry Breakage) Model of Political Polarization, Matthew Pirkowski, 2018]</ref><ref>[[Simulated annealing - Wikipedia]([Simulated annealing - Wikipedia]([Simulated annealing - Wikipedia]([Simulated annealing - Wikipedia]([Simulated annealing - Wikipedia](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Simulated_annealing))))) Simulated annealing]</ref><ref>[[- YouTube](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v===n6DqFX3UbJY) The Aesthetic of the Meta-Aesthetic: the Meaning Nexus Between Memeplexes, Andrés Gómez Emilsson et al., 2022]</ref><ref>[[[1705.07161] Statistical physics of human cooperation]([[1705.07161] Statistical physics of human cooperation]([[1705.07161] Statistical physics of human cooperation]([[1705.07161] Statistical physics of human cooperation]([[1705.07161] Statistical physics of human cooperation](https://arxiv.org/abs/1705.07161))))) Statistical physics of human cooperation, Matjaz Perc et al., 2017]</ref><ref>[[Mean-field theory of social laser | Scientific Reports]([Mean-field theory of social laser | Scientific Reports](https://www.nature.com/articles/s41598-022-12327-w)) Mean-field theory of social laser, Alexander P. Alodjants et al., 2022]</ref><ref>[[- YouTube]([- YouTube](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v===MNa8IIz3Kw8)) Coordination dynamics of multi-agent interaction in a musical ensemble, Shannon Proksch et al., 2022]</ref><ref>[[- YouTube](https://youtube.com/watch?v===37jR5IN1x78) The Coordination Dynamics of Multiple Agents, Mengsen Zhang, 2016]</ref> Active Inference agents create specialized cooperating or competing clusters in terms of free energy minimization strategies using different types of cultures.<ref>[[Epistemic Communities under Active Inference[v1] | Preprints.org]([Epistemic Communities under Active Inference[v1] | Preprints.org](https://www.preprints.org/manuscript/202201.0124/v1)) Epistemic Communities under Active Inference, Mahault Albarracin et al., 2022]</ref><ref>[[Thinking through other minds: A variational approach to cognition and culture - PubMed]([Thinking through other minds: A variational approach to cognition and culture - PubMed]([Thinking through other minds: A variational approach to cognition and culture - PubMed]([Thinking through other minds: A variational approach to cognition and culture - PubMed]([Thinking through other minds: A variational approach to cognition and culture - PubMed]([Thinking through other minds: A variational approach to cognition and culture - PubMed](https://pubmed.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/31142395/)))))) Thinking through other minds: A variational approach to cognition and culture, Maxwell J D Ramstead et al., 2019]</ref><ref>[[Entropy | Free Full-Text | A Variational Synthesis of Evolutionary and Developmental Dynamics]([Entropy | Free Full-Text | A Variational Synthesis of Evolutionary and Developmental Dynamics]([Entropy | Free Full-Text | A Variational Synthesis of Evolutionary and Developmental Dynamics]([Entropy | Free Full-Text | A Variational Synthesis of Evolutionary and Developmental Dynamics]([Entropy | Free Full-Text | A Variational Synthesis of Evolutionary and Developmental Dynamics]([Entropy | Free Full-Text | A Variational Synthesis of Evolutionary and Developmental Dynamics](https://www.mdpi.com/1099-4300/25/7/964)))))) A Variational Synthesis of Evolutionary and Developmental Dynamics, Karl Friston et al., 2023]</ref><ref>[[Deeply Felt Affect: The Emergence of Valence in Deep Active Inference - PubMed]([Deeply Felt Affect: The Emergence of Valence in Deep Active Inference - PubMed]([Deeply Felt Affect: The Emergence of Valence in Deep Active Inference - PubMed]([Deeply Felt Affect: The Emergence of Valence in Deep Active Inference - PubMed](https://pubmed.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/33253028/)))) Deeply Felt Affect: The Emergence of Valence in Deep Active Inference, Ryan Smith et al., 2021]</ref> By mathematical analysis of model's properties, we can find out how fit the whole system, the humanity, is to its environment, and how to direct it towards a more fit state. <references/> ===Literature review in the context of Active Inference=== ====Metacrisis summary, synthesis of Daniel Schmachtenberger, Jonathan Rowson, Zak Stein, Daniel Thorson, Terry Patten, by Kyle Kowalski==== [[Meta Crisis 101: What is the Meta-Crisis? (+ Infographics) | Sloww]([Meta Crisis 101: What is the Meta-Crisis? (+ Infographics) | Sloww]([Meta Crisis 101: What is the Meta-Crisis? (+ Infographics) | Sloww]([Meta Crisis 101: What is the Meta-Crisis? (+ Infographics) | Sloww]([Meta Crisis 101: What is the Meta-Crisis? (+ Infographics) | Sloww]([Meta Crisis 101: What is the Meta-Crisis? (+ Infographics) | Sloww]([Meta Crisis 101: What is the Meta-Crisis? (+ Infographics) | Sloww]([Meta Crisis 101: What is the Meta-Crisis? (+ Infographics) | Sloww]([Meta Crisis 101: What is the Meta-Crisis? (+ Infographics) | Sloww]([Meta Crisis 101: What is the Meta-Crisis? (+ Infographics) | Sloww]([Meta Crisis 101: What is the Meta-Crisis? (+ Infographics) | Sloww]([Meta Crisis 101: What is the Meta-Crisis? (+ Infographics) | Sloww]([Meta Crisis 101: What is the Meta-Crisis? (+ Infographics) | Sloww](https://www.sloww.co/meta-crisis-101/))))))))))))) Meta Crisis 101: What is the Meta-Crisis? (+ Infographics), Kyle Kowalski] =====Metacrisis definition===== Underlying crisis driving multitude of overlapping and interconnected global crises - ecological, governmental, economic, financial, geopolitical, energy, cultural, educational, epistemic, psychological, socio-emotional or spiritual crisis Alternatively: metacrisis is the crisis of perception and understanding that lies within the range of crises humanity faces Its more complex than everything going wrong using black and white pessimistic lens, there are things so much better in many ways as well, such as reducing poverty, illneses, increasing scientific progress. Some positive effects can in the big picture turn negative though. Ecological === We are hurting out environment that we need for survival. 1. SENSE-MAKING CRISIS (WHAT IS THE CASE?): “Confusion at the level of understanding the nature of the world. Everyday people and experts are struggling to say things that are true, unable to comprehend increasing complexity.” Worst-case scenario: “complete epistemic unmooring and descent into the cultural vertigo of an inescapable simulation.” Best-case scenario: “emergent forms of post-digital individual and collective sense-making spreading on a massive scale.” 2. CAPABILITY CRISIS (HOW CAN IT BE DONE?): “Incapacity at the level of operating on the world intelligently. In all social positions and domains of work, individuals are increasingly unable to engage in problem- solving to the degree needed for continued social integration.” Worst-case scenario: “results in catastrophic infrastructure failure due to a brain-power shortage.” Best-case scenario: “revivification of guilds and technical educational initiatives for a new economics of social system integration.” 3. LEGITIMACY CRISIS (WHO SHOULD DO IT?): “Incoherence at the level of cultural agreements. Political and bureaucratic forms of power are failing to provide sufficiently convincing rationale and justification for trust in their continued authority.” Worst-case scenario: “complete citizen-level defection from all organised political bodies.” Best-case scenario: “new forms of governance and collective choice-making that are built out from first principles, factoring in dynamics that are digital and planetary.” 4. MEANING CRISIS (WHY DO IT?): “Inauthenticity at the level of personal experience. Individuals from all walks of life are questioning the purpose of their existence, the goodness of the world, and the value of ethics, beauty, and truth.” "Crisis of 'we'" Worst-case scenario: “peak alienation and a total mental health crisis.” Best-case scenario: “democratisation of enlightenment, sanity and psychological sovereignty.” ======Active Inference context====== Humanity superorganism is a system made out of nested interacting systems (governing parts, social groups), active inference agent preserved by a nested hiearchy/hetearchy/anarchy of markov blankets corresponding to different concrete (governing institution) or abstract (subculture) substructures. Sense-making === Confusion at the level of understanding the nature of the world. System making for survival and flourishing insufficient models of its internal (understanding how society operates) and external (understanding how nature operates) dynamics by falling into overfitting (too specialized) or underfitting (too general) or freeze responce (not doing anything) failure modes or not having enough computational power to train an accurate representation (unable to comprehend increasing complexity) or not directing modelling power to important areas (ignoring because of short term local interests or just being clueless) Capability crisis === Incapacity at the level of operating on the world intelligently. Not enough coordinated action states to act inside various active inference subagents informed by efficient internal hidden (sense making) states (unable to engage in problem with specific efficient solutions) (solving to the degree needed for continued social integration), not taking in account long term consequences in time (not deep enough policies) or what destructive or maladaptive domino effects (interconnectedness of global crises and influences) (cascading causal influence in the network) it might cause inside or outside the system Legitimacy crisis === Incoherence at the level of cultural agreements. Culture is defined by shared language, when there are asymmetric frameworks of beliefs that when interacting generate inneficient message passing with lots of friction (leading to loss of important information) and inability to reduce uncertainity between governing and laymen clusters of people, result is tension, absence of reinforced dependence and connection (resulting in agents being mutually unsatisfied resulting in mutual distrust) Meaning crisis === Inauthenticity at the level of personal experience. Nonexistent implemented efficient collective scientific (natural sciences) (outside world) and psychological (spiritual) (inside world) uncertainity reduction protocol (metamodern culture of connection) leading to discoordinated local interaction of mutually incompatible disconnected agents with different fundamental priors (science vs spirituality instead of being together, corporations maximizing for limbic hijacking addictivity, corporations not aligned with governing intitutions not aligned with communities of people that are also not connected by something deeper, leading to too much of ingroup outgroup competition (above the healthy limit) instead of collective problem solving as humanity), absence of shared goal space and objective functions, inability to explore uncertain realms because of too much order leading to overfitting (too high mental specialization aka canalization leading to inability to see entropic beauty in everything, being stuck in one's perspective, leading to inability for empathy (psychopathic ethics), inability for theory of mind leading to inability for connection and collective uncertainity reducing goal states, leading to collective hopelessness (brains having action states crisis) and fear about future) Ecological === system (humanity) destroying useful negentropy generator functions in the environment by planning short term instead of long term ===Unified literature in the context of Active Inference=== Society as nested active inference agents compromising one big active inference agent. ====Good statistics==== Is the world getting better or worse? A look at the numbers | Steven Pinker [- YouTube](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v===yCm9Ng0bbEQ) ====Bad statistics==== [- YouTube](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v===W93XyXHI8Nw) Threats to its stability in time: Climate change, bioweapons, AGI, natural risks,... Patterns making threats more dangerous: Metacrisis (sensemaking, capability, legitimacy, mental health, meaning) Solutions by scientifically, technologically and politically solving symptoms and causes ====Climate change==== Human caused global warming [- YouTube]([- YouTube](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v===9FppammO1zk)) =====Statistics===== ======Good====== ======Bad====== =====Solutions===== ======Symptoms====== ======Causes====== Clean energy ====Potential futures==== =====Good===== =====Bad===== ====Bioweapons==== [- YouTube]([- YouTube](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v===9FppammO1zk)) ====AGI==== ====Nuclear==== ====Exponential technology in general==== ====Sensemaking crisis solutions==== Strenghten education, enforcing thinking globally ====Meaning crisis solutions==== Metamodern language of meaning ====Mental health, loneliness solutions==== Denormalize attention limbic hijacking social media Culture of connection ====Underlying driver, Rivalious dynamics==== General solution: Designing collective error slopes / valence grandients / objective functions instead of individualistic by giving emphasis on collective action resolving collective problems, collective uncertainity resolution about basic needs ====Big picture potential futures==== ===Variables to analyze that emerge bottom up or are modified top down by governing structures (societal cognitive architecture)=== =====Avoiding failure modes of learning/inferring/modelling of internal states and external environment===== - For efficent negentropy extraction and internal communication<ref>[[- YouTube]([- YouTube]([- YouTube](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v===_JCaic5Cxms))) Universal Bayesianism: A New Kind of Theory of Everything, Bobby Azarian, 2022]</ref> - Learning from history <ref>[[The Collapse of Complex Societies w/ Joseph Tainter - YouTube]([The Collapse of Complex Societies w/ Joseph Tainter - YouTube](https://youtu.be/K-8sd0R4ooY)) The Collapse of Complex Societies, Joseph Tainter, 2022]</ref> - Collective maladaptive destructive freeze/flight/fight responces <ref>[[Fight-or-flight response - Wikipedia]([Fight-or-flight response - Wikipedia](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Fight-or-flight_response)) Fight-or-flight response]</ref> <references/> - Depressive learned hopelessness from for example repetetive but unsuccessful problem-solving attempts<ref>[https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/abs/pii/S0149763422003621 Oversampled and undersolved: Depressive rumination from an active inference perspective, Max Berg et al., 2022]</ref>(agentic action states as source of free will mental causation crisis)<ref>[[OSF]([OSF]([OSF](https://psyarxiv.com/6afs3)))/ The inner screen model of consciousness: applying the free energy principle directly to the study of conscious experience, Karl Friston et al., 2023]</ref><ref>[[- YouTube](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v===S-tFHIqtbSI) The Teleological Stance: The Free Energy Principle as a Basis for a Scientific Self-Help System, Bobby Azarian, 2023]</ref> <references/> - Learned uncertainity not mapping to actual dynamics and disregulated panicking from for example collective traumatic memory<ref>[[Frontiers | Learned uncertainty: The free energy principle in anxiety]([Frontiers | Learned uncertainty: The free energy principle in anxiety]([Frontiers | Learned uncertainty: The free energy principle in anxiety]([Frontiers | Learned uncertainty: The free energy principle in anxiety]([Frontiers | Learned uncertainty: The free energy principle in anxiety]([Frontiers | Learned uncertainty: The free energy principle in anxiety]([Frontiers | Learned uncertainty: The free energy principle in anxiety]([Frontiers | Learned uncertainty: The free energy principle in anxiety](https://www.frontiersin.org/articles/10.3389/fpsyg.2022.943785/full)))))))) Learned uncertainty: The free energy principle in anxiety, H. T. McGovern et al., 2022]</ref> <references/>