maslow hiarchy of needs, human interconnections as first? [The secret to happiness? Here’s some advice from the longest-running study on happiness - Harvard Health]([The secret to happiness? Here’s some advice from the longest-running study on happiness - Harvard Health]([The secret to happiness? Here’s some advice from the longest-running study on happiness - Harvard Health]([The secret to happiness? Here’s some advice from the longest-running study on happiness - Harvard Health]([The secret to happiness? Here’s some advice from the longest-running study on happiness - Harvard Health]([The secret to happiness? Here’s some advice from the longest-running study on happiness - Harvard Health]([The secret to happiness? Here’s some advice from the longest-running study on happiness - Harvard Health]([The secret to happiness? Here’s some advice from the longest-running study on happiness - Harvard Health]([The secret to happiness? Here’s some advice from the longest-running study on happiness - Harvard Health](https://www.health.harvard.edu/blog/the-secret-to-happiness-heres-some-advice-from-the-longest-running-study-on-happiness-2017100512543))))))))) symmetry theory of valence, useful data compression https://royalsocietypublishing.org/doi/10.1098/rsfs.2023.0015 annealing https://twitter.com/QualiaRI/status/1659991488800100353 big five https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/abs/pii/B9780128192009000107 archetypes [OSF]([OSF]([OSF]([OSF]([OSF]([OSF]([OSF]([OSF](https://psyarxiv.com/ygptv/)))))))) kegan stages of development, integral, buddhist paths stage theories are predicted labels for approximating different metastable neurophenomenological configurations and theorized transition functions between them ====Wellbeing in society==== minimal collective intelligence model [Entropy | Free Full-Text | An Active Inference Model of Collective Intelligence]([Entropy | Free Full-Text | An Active Inference Model of Collective Intelligence]([Entropy | Free Full-Text | An Active Inference Model of Collective Intelligence]([Entropy | Free Full-Text | An Active Inference Model of Collective Intelligence]([Entropy | Free Full-Text | An Active Inference Model of Collective Intelligence](https://www.mdpi.com/1099-4300/23/7/830)))))/htm subsystems in our system as cognitive architectures [Principled Societies Project Home]([Principled Societies Project Home]([Principled Societies Project Home]([Principled Societies Project Home]([Principled Societies Project Home](https://principledsocietiesproject.org/))))) too much competetion - find evolutionary pressures that minimize total amount of competetion [Meta Crisis 101: What is the Meta-Crisis? (+ Infographics) | Sloww]([Meta Crisis 101: What is the Meta-Crisis? (+ Infographics) | Sloww]([Meta Crisis 101: What is the Meta-Crisis? (+ Infographics) | Sloww]([Meta Crisis 101: What is the Meta-Crisis? (+ Infographics) | Sloww]([Meta Crisis 101: What is the Meta-Crisis? (+ Infographics) | Sloww]([Meta Crisis 101: What is the Meta-Crisis? (+ Infographics) | Sloww]([Meta Crisis 101: What is the Meta-Crisis? (+ Infographics) | Sloww]([Meta Crisis 101: What is the Meta-Crisis? (+ Infographics) | Sloww]([Meta Crisis 101: What is the Meta-Crisis? (+ Infographics) | Sloww]([Meta Crisis 101: What is the Meta-Crisis? (+ Infographics) | Sloww]([Meta Crisis 101: What is the Meta-Crisis? (+ Infographics) | Sloww]([Meta Crisis 101: What is the Meta-Crisis? (+ Infographics) | Sloww]([Meta Crisis 101: What is the Meta-Crisis? (+ Infographics) | Sloww](https://www.sloww.co/meta-crisis-101/))))))))))))) culture of compassion, planetary awareness, cultral bayesian belief synchrony, morals, theory of governance, theory of metacrisis https://www.weforum.org/reports/global-risks-report-2023/ gaia, solutions to metacrisis [The Gaia Attractor. A planetary AI copilot network to overcome the Metacrisis | Rafael Kaufmann | Medium]([The Gaia Attractor. A planetary AI copilot network to overcome the Metacrisis | Rafael Kaufmann | Medium]([The Gaia Attractor. A planetary AI copilot network to overcome the Metacrisis | Rafael Kaufmann | Medium]([The Gaia Attractor. A planetary AI copilot network to overcome the Metacrisis | Rafael Kaufmann | Medium]([The Gaia Attractor. A planetary AI copilot network to overcome the Metacrisis | Rafael Kaufmann | Medium]([The Gaia Attractor. A planetary AI copilot network to overcome the Metacrisis | Rafael Kaufmann | Medium]([The Gaia Attractor. A planetary AI copilot network to overcome the Metacrisis | Rafael Kaufmann | Medium]([The Gaia Attractor. A planetary AI copilot network to overcome the Metacrisis | Rafael Kaufmann | Medium]([The Gaia Attractor. A planetary AI copilot network to overcome the Metacrisis | Rafael Kaufmann | Medium]([The Gaia Attractor. A planetary AI copilot network to overcome the Metacrisis | Rafael Kaufmann | Medium]([The Gaia Attractor. A planetary AI copilot network to overcome the Metacrisis | Rafael Kaufmann | Medium]([The Gaia Attractor. A planetary AI copilot network to overcome the Metacrisis | Rafael Kaufmann | Medium]([The Gaia Attractor. A planetary AI copilot network to overcome the Metacrisis | Rafael Kaufmann | Medium]([The Gaia Attractor. A planetary AI copilot network to overcome the Metacrisis | Rafael Kaufmann | Medium]([The Gaia Attractor. A planetary AI copilot network to overcome the Metacrisis | Rafael Kaufmann | Medium]([The Gaia Attractor. A planetary AI copilot network to overcome the Metacrisis | Rafael Kaufmann | Medium](https://rkauf.medium.com/the-gaia-attractor-41e5af33f3b7)))))))))))))))) ===Discussion=== Integration is important if we want to unify world's knowledge on the most important topics to help the most pressing problems. let's integrate more! let's put those ideas into practice! *Nonlinear fun* [Effective Individual And Collective Wellbeing Engineering - Qualia Research]([Effective Individual And Collective Wellbeing Engineering - Qualia Research]([Effective Individual And Collective Wellbeing Engineering - Qualia Research]([Effective Individual And Collective Wellbeing Engineering - Qualia Research](https://qualiaresearch.miraheze.org/wiki/Effective_Individual_And_Collective_Wellbeing_Engineering)#Effective_Collective_Wellbeing_Engineering))) ==Effective Collective Wellbeing Engineering== ===Context=== What are the underlying causes of all the problems we are as humanity facing, such as nuclear war to environmental degradation to animal rights issues to class issues, what do these things have in common? "We have to shift is the economy because perverse economic incentive is under the whole thing, there's no way that as long as you have a for-profit military-industrial complex is the largest block of a global economy that you could ever have peace there's an anti-incentive on it as long as there's so much money to be made with mining, etc., like we have to fix the nature of economic incentives!" "The core of the thing that we have to address is education because you can have so much change occur in a generation if those children are growing up different as as different as it is learning Chinese is your first language versus learning English we're so neuroplastic by the time we're adults we're not that neuroplastic we're kind of screwed if you get education right we want adults who care about the animals and the oceans and the contend to all of these things and can think complexly if we really get education right we'll be able to solve everything it's upstream from all that!" "Really the thing is it's about social media because we're continuously being bombarded and we were ready to go do a capital Riot or a George Floyd protester Riot or whatever it is based on the stuff that's coming in if we could change the media environment of what people were in taking it would change all of these things!" "No the thing is really at the end of the day it's about government and law and how do we get that right because the economic incentive wouldn't be that same issue if we could govern it properly if we could force the internalization of the price of carbon and get carbon pricing properly and get costs of everything proper all that would be fixed but we have to do that through law so how do we fix governance and law!" "You can't because laws written by lobbyists that get paid for by somebody and wherever the economic motive is what's going to pay for that which is why you have to think about economics and a lot of the other so the key is political economy and how do you get that!" "No really the key is actually parenting what we've really got to do is restore the family because before education by the time that kid goes to school at five or six that so much of their identity and psyche and value system has already said it happens early on we have to actually change the entire culture to have parenting emphasize raising better kids from the beginning!" "Everything you're saying is so anthropocentric the key is the environment because we're none of us are anything without the environment like you have to prioritize that everything else doesn't matter that much and like what is an economy like we can breathe without money we can't breathe without air and so be less anthropocentric and focus on the integrity of the environment because that's upstream from everything!" unifying languages, cultural compassionate transformation expanding caring cognitive lightcones, mental health reform, antimoloch narratives, (secular?) religion, structure of cities, preparing for climate/economic migrants The answer to all of the problems is all of the solutions! There is not a theory of change, there's an ecology of theories of change! People can get fundamentalist about their particular solution because if you're working on something you should really care about it but in really caring about it you can become overly narrowly focused. Everything is complexly interacting, there's not a solution, there's lots of things that need to happen! I want patterns of how to think about it, and I want frameworks for how to think about it, I don't want people to attached to those frameworks because they'll be useful but also limiting and to realize the cultural aspects do involve education and media and parenting religion and lots of other things and the structure of cities and you know in the political economy aspects involve lots of things and so getting past the zealotists and reductionist focus and being able to get how do all these things come together is key to understanding properly! [- YouTube](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v==Kep8Fi_rUUI) Let's model societal system using the active inference model from complexity science and see different subsystems in our society as different cognitive architectures and different attempts to change as different differently succefull evolutionary pressures on those. How to create the most succesfull evolutionary pressures to steer civilization away from molochian (short term competitive local gain in power at the cost of everyone's long term wellbeing) selfdestruction? How succesful are the current pressures? Where do we need more impactful solutions? Let's map it out! for policymakers, economics, governance, climate,... ===Summary=== There is a landscape of crises and (existencial) risks we face, landscape of solutions to them with different degrees of success, all acting as evolutionary forces in the Active Inference model of the global societal system ===Context=== The first outcome of the project will be a unifying map of literature that looks at approaches to identify threats to humanity and how to mitigate them with concrete actions. It will find similarities and synergies between the approaches, exploring both pessimistic and optimistic perspectives, including making positive future visions real. Examples of threats are AI risk, bioweapons, climate change, nuclear war, sensemaking and coordination failures, population wellbeing decline, adaptability, meaning and loneliness crisis. The results will be contextualized using technical but readable format of science based mathematical Active Inference modeling framework and communicated by articles, videos, online and offline lectures in high impact communities. The project will reach out to theoretical and applied researchers, allowing them to find problems to work on, and those working on similar problems to find collaborators, helping to increase the chances of a good future for everyone. Project goal is to create a science based literature that maps out and bridges different research and applied research communities looking into the problem of existential risks and population wellbeing. It will communicate it in relevant high impact places, leading to more effective global coordination about these problems. The project outcome will serve as a navigation map, connect compatible research groups together, as well as motivate and incentivize groups to advance progress on their respective solutions with supporting research. ===Introduction=== Metaanalysis and synthesis of research literature regarding various approaches to solving the problem of existential risks (including AI risk) and population wellbeing management. Using Active Inference and other complementing complex systems mathematical modelling and analysis tools as a concrete technical language to contextualize and synergize various approaches while finding novel solutions. Map out the space of proposed solutions. Create science based plans to reduce the probability of bad scenarios happening and reduce the probability of extinction if bad scenarios already happen. Communicate this research’s concrete solutions in research community and to places like Effective Altruism to implement the solutions in practice. For example how to increase collective rationalism, adaptability, resilience, mental hygiene, connection, coordination by better communication, alignment of biological and artificial agents, or having structures monitor and solve existential risks. ===Goal=== Project goal is to create a science based literature that bridges between different research and applied research communities that are solving the problem of existential risks and wellbeing, and creating new solutions, and communicating it in those places, creating more effective global coordination. If a research or applied research group uses my literature as a navigation map, or if I manage to connect compatible research groups together, or motivate or incentivize a group to advance progress on a solution that is missing (for example missing nuclear fallout shelters), I take that as a win. ===Abstract=== Some core insights are that we suffer from too much order, too little interconnected systemic thinking, excess of competition, disintegration of social cohesion, too little global coordination, not feeling moral responsibility for all future generations enough, lots of psychopathic active inference agents externalizing harm because of game theoretical short term local benefit ===Literature overview=== ====Metacrisis summary, synthesis of Daniel Schmachtenberger, Jonathan Rowson, Zak Stein, Daniel Thorson, Terry Patten, by Kyle Kowalski==== [[Meta Crisis 101: What is the Meta-Crisis? (+ Infographics) | Sloww]([Meta Crisis 101: What is the Meta-Crisis? (+ Infographics) | Sloww]([Meta Crisis 101: What is the Meta-Crisis? (+ Infographics) | Sloww]([Meta Crisis 101: What is the Meta-Crisis? (+ Infographics) | Sloww]([Meta Crisis 101: What is the Meta-Crisis? (+ Infographics) | Sloww]([Meta Crisis 101: What is the Meta-Crisis? (+ Infographics) | Sloww]([Meta Crisis 101: What is the Meta-Crisis? (+ Infographics) | Sloww]([Meta Crisis 101: What is the Meta-Crisis? (+ Infographics) | Sloww]([Meta Crisis 101: What is the Meta-Crisis? (+ Infographics) | Sloww]([Meta Crisis 101: What is the Meta-Crisis? (+ Infographics) | Sloww]([Meta Crisis 101: What is the Meta-Crisis? (+ Infographics) | Sloww]([Meta Crisis 101: What is the Meta-Crisis? (+ Infographics) | Sloww]([Meta Crisis 101: What is the Meta-Crisis? (+ Infographics) | Sloww](https://www.sloww.co/meta-crisis-101/))))))))))))) Meta Crisis 101: What is the Meta-Crisis? (+ Infographics), Kyle Kowalski] Metacrisis definition: Underlying crisis driving multitude of overlapping and interconnected global crises - ecological, governmental, economic, financial, geopolitical, energy, cultural, educational, epistemic, psychological, socio-emotional or spiritual crisis Alternatively: metacrisis is the crisis of perception and understanding that lies within the range of crises humanity faces Its more complex than everything going wrong using black and white pessimistic lens, there are things so much better in many ways as well, such as reducing poverty, illneses, increasing scientific progress. Some positive effects can in the big picture turn negative though. ===Unified literature=== [EA Survey 2020: Cause Prioritization — EA Forum Bots]([EA Survey 2020: Cause Prioritization — EA Forum Bots]([EA Survey 2020: Cause Prioritization — EA Forum Bots](https://forum.effectivealtruism.org/posts/83tEL2sHDTiWR6nwo/ea-survey-2020-cause-prioritization))) Positive statistics: Pinker Negative statistics: daniel schmachtenberger List of interconnected crises: List of concrete threats: Negative future predictions: Eliezer Yudkowski Positive future predictions: Andres Gomez Emmilson ===Active Inference Model===