Sense-making ==== Confusion at the level of understanding the nature of the world. System making for survival and flourishing insufficient models of its internal (understanding how society operates) and external (understanding how nature operates) dynamics by falling into overfitting (too specialized) or underfitting (too general) or freeze responce (not doing anything) failure modes or not having enough computational power to train an accurate representation (unable to comprehend increasing complexity) or not directing modelling power to important areas (ignoring because of short term local interests or just being clueless) Capability crisis ==== Incapacity at the level of operating on the world intelligently. Not enough coordinated action states to act inside various active inference subagents informed by efficient internal hidden (sense making) states (unable to engage in problem with specific efficient solutions) (solving to the degree needed for continued social integration), not taking in account long term consequences in time (not deep enough policies) or what destructive or maladaptive domino effects (interconnectedness of global crises and influences) (cascading causal influence in the network) it might cause inside or outside the system Legitimacy crisis ==== Incoherence at the level of cultural agreements. Culture is defined by shared language, when there are asymmetric frameworks of beliefs that when interacting generate inneficient message passing with lots of friction (leading to loss of important information) and inability to reduce uncertainity between governing and laymen clusters of people, result is tension, absence of reinforced dependence and connection (resulting in agents being mutually unsatisfied resulting in mutual distrust) Meaning crisis ==== Inauthenticity at the level of personal experience. Nonexistent implemented efficient collective scientific (natural sciences) (outside world) and psychological (spiritual) (inside world) uncertainity reduction protocol (metamodern culture of connection) leading to discoordinated local interaction of mutually incompatible disconnected agents with different fundamental priors (science vs spirituality instead of being together, corporations maximizing for limbic hijacking addictivity, corporations not aligned with governing intitutions not aligned with communities of people that are also not connected by something deeper, leading to too much of ingroup outgroup competition (above the healthy limit) instead of collective problem solving as humanity), absence of shared goal space and objective functions, inability to explore uncertain realms because of too much order leading to overfitting (too high mental specialization aka canalization leading to inability to see entropic beauty in everything, being stuck in one's perspective, leading to inability for empathy (psychopathic ethics), inability for theory of mind leading to inability for connection and collective uncertainity reducing goal states, leading to collective hopelessness (brains having action states crisis) and fear about future) Ecological ==== system (humanity) destroying useful negentropy generator functions in the environment by planning short term instead of long term ====Unified literature in the context of Active Inference==== Society as nested active inference agents compromising one big active inference agent. =====Good statistics===== Is the world getting better or worse? A look at the numbers | Steven Pinker [- YouTube](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v====yCm9Ng0bbEQ) =====Bad statistics===== [- YouTube](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v====W93XyXHI8Nw) Threats to its stability in time: Climate change, bioweapons, AGI, natural risks,... Patterns making threats more dangerous: Metacrisis (sensemaking, capability, legitimacy, mental health, meaning) Solutions by scientifically, technologically and politically solving symptoms and causes =====Climate change===== Human caused global warming [- YouTube]([- YouTube](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v====9FppammO1zk)) ======Statistics====== =======Good======= =======Bad======= ======Solutions====== =======Symptoms======= =======Causes======= Clean energy =====Potential futures===== ======Good====== ======Bad====== =====Bioweapons===== [- YouTube]([- YouTube](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v====9FppammO1zk)) =====AGI===== =====Nuclear===== =====Exponential technology in general===== =====Sensemaking crisis solutions===== Strenghten education, enforcing thinking globally =====Meaning crisis solutions===== Metamodern language of meaning =====Mental health, loneliness solutions===== Denormalize attention limbic hijacking social media Culture of connection =====Underlying driver, Rivalious dynamics===== General solution: Designing collective error slopes / valence grandients / objective functions instead of individualistic by giving emphasis on collective action resolving collective problems, collective uncertainity resolution about basic needs =====Big picture potential futures===== ====Variables to analyze that emerge bottom up or are modified top down by governing structures (societal cognitive architecture)==== ======Avoiding failure modes of learning/inferring/modelling of internal states and external environment====== - For efficent negentropy extraction and internal communication<ref>[[- YouTube](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v====_JCaic5Cxms) Universal Bayesianism: A New Kind of Theory of Everything, Bobby Azarian, 2022]</ref> - Learning from history <ref>[[The Collapse of Complex Societies w/ Joseph Tainter - YouTube]([The Collapse of Complex Societies w/ Joseph Tainter - YouTube](https://youtu.be/K-8sd0R4ooY)) The Collapse of Complex Societies, Joseph Tainter, 2022]</ref> - Collective maladaptive destructive freeze/flight/fight responces <ref>[[Fight-or-flight response - Wikipedia]([Fight-or-flight response - Wikipedia](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Fight-or-flight_response)) Fight-or-flight response]</ref> <references/> - Depressive learned hopelessness from for example repetetive but unsuccessful problem-solving attempts<ref>[https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/abs/pii/S0149763422003621 Oversampled and undersolved: Depressive rumination from an active inference perspective, Max Berg et al., 2022]</ref>(agentic action states as source of free will mental causation crisis)<ref>[[OSF]([OSF]([OSF](https://psyarxiv.com/6afs3)))/ The inner screen model of consciousness: applying the free energy principle directly to the study of conscious experience, Karl Friston et al., 2023]</ref><ref>[[- YouTube](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v====S-tFHIqtbSI) The Teleological Stance: The Free Energy Principle as a Basis for a Scientific Self-Help System, Bobby Azarian, 2023]</ref> <references/> - Learned uncertainity not mapping to actual dynamics and disregulated panicking from for example collective traumatic memory<ref>[[Frontiers | Learned uncertainty: The free energy principle in anxiety]([Frontiers | Learned uncertainty: The free energy principle in anxiety]([Frontiers | Learned uncertainty: The free energy principle in anxiety]([Frontiers | Learned uncertainty: The free energy principle in anxiety]([Frontiers | Learned uncertainty: The free energy principle in anxiety]([Frontiers | Learned uncertainty: The free energy principle in anxiety]([Frontiers | Learned uncertainty: The free energy principle in anxiety]([Frontiers | Learned uncertainty: The free energy principle in anxiety](https://www.frontiersin.org/articles/10.3389/fpsyg.2022.943785/full)))))))) Learned uncertainty: The free energy principle in anxiety, H. T. McGovern et al., 2022]</ref> <references/> - Overfitting or underfitting in collective reasoning or systemic (governing) structures (which probably correlates)<ref>[https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0028390822004579 Canalization and plasticity in psychopathology, R.L. Carhart-Harris et al., 2023]</ref><ref>[[OSF]([OSF]([OSF]([OSF]([OSF]([OSF]([OSF](https://psyarxiv.com/uxmz6/))))))) Deep CANALs: A Deep Learning Approach to Refining the Canalization Theory of Psychopathology, Adam Safron et al., 2023]</ref><ref>[[The Canal Papers - by Scott Alexander - Astral Codex Ten]([The Canal Papers - by Scott Alexander - Astral Codex Ten]([The Canal Papers - by Scott Alexander - Astral Codex Ten]([The Canal Papers - by Scott Alexander - Astral Codex Ten]([The Canal Papers - by Scott Alexander - Astral Codex Ten]([The Canal Papers - by Scott Alexander - Astral Codex Ten]([The Canal Papers - by Scott Alexander - Astral Codex Ten]([The Canal Papers - by Scott Alexander - Astral Codex Ten]([The Canal Papers - by Scott Alexander - Astral Codex Ten]([The Canal Papers - by Scott Alexander - Astral Codex Ten]([The Canal Papers - by Scott Alexander - Astral Codex Ten]([The Canal Papers - by Scott Alexander - Astral Codex Ten](https://astralcodexten.substack.com/p/the-canal-papers)))))))))))) The Canal Papers, Astral Codex Ten, 2023]</ref><ref>[https://journals.sagepub.com/doi/10.1177/17456916221075252 Autistic-Like Traits and Positive Schizotypy as Diametric Specializations of the Predictive Mind, Brett P. Andersen, 2022]</ref><ref>[[Autism as a disorder of dimensionality – Opentheory.net]([Autism as a disorder of dimensionality – Opentheory.net]([Autism as a disorder of dimensionality – Opentheory.net]([Autism as a disorder of dimensionality – Opentheory.net]([Autism as a disorder of dimensionality – Opentheory.net]([Autism as a disorder of dimensionality – Opentheory.net]([Autism as a disorder of dimensionality – Opentheory.net]([Autism as a disorder of dimensionality – Opentheory.net]([Autism as a disorder of dimensionality – Opentheory.net]([Autism as a disorder of dimensionality – Opentheory.net]([Autism as a disorder of dimensionality – Opentheory.net]([Autism as a disorder of dimensionality – Opentheory.net](https://opentheory.net/2023/05/autism-as-a-disorder-of-dimensionality/)))))))))))) Autism as a disorder of dimensionality, Michael Edward Johnson, 2023]</ref> that can be modified by societal annealing<ref>[[- YouTube]([- YouTube](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v====QktnfpbYx7M)) The Romance of Reality, Universal Bayesianism, Bobby Azarian et al., 2023]</ref> <references/> - Other maladaptive parameter values in active inference<ref>[[- YouTube](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v====DepOiSw2nF0,) A Computational Neuroscience Perspective on Subjective Wellbeing, Ryan Smith, 2022]</ref> <references/> ======Structures monitoring and reducing the probability of threats to humanity and directing towards positive futures====== Measuring and reducing chances of climate change, nuclear war tensions, natural risks,...<ref>[[Anders Sandberg - Grand Futures – Thinking Truly Long Term - YouTube]([Anders Sandberg - Grand Futures – Thinking Truly Long Term - YouTube]([Anders Sandberg - Grand Futures – Thinking Truly Long Term - YouTube](https://youtu.be/5fPOYEHHy4I))) Grand Futures – Thinking Truly Long Term, Anders Sandberg, 2022]</ref><ref>[[Meta Crisis 101: What is the Meta-Crisis? (+ Infographics) | Sloww]([Meta Crisis 101: What is the Meta-Crisis? (+ Infographics) | Sloww]([Meta Crisis 101: What is the Meta-Crisis? (+ Infographics) | Sloww]([Meta Crisis 101: What is the Meta-Crisis? (+ Infographics) | Sloww]([Meta Crisis 101: What is the Meta-Crisis? (+ Infographics) | Sloww]([Meta Crisis 101: What is the Meta-Crisis? (+ Infographics) | Sloww]([Meta Crisis 101: What is the Meta-Crisis? (+ Infographics) | Sloww]([Meta Crisis 101: What is the Meta-Crisis? (+ Infographics) | Sloww]([Meta Crisis 101: What is the Meta-Crisis? (+ Infographics) | Sloww]([Meta Crisis 101: What is the Meta-Crisis? (+ Infographics) | Sloww]([Meta Crisis 101: What is the Meta-Crisis? (+ Infographics) | Sloww]([Meta Crisis 101: What is the Meta-Crisis? (+ Infographics) | Sloww]([Meta Crisis 101: What is the Meta-Crisis? (+ Infographics) | Sloww](https://www.sloww.co/meta-crisis-101/))))))))))))) Maps of the Metacrisis, Kyle Kowalski]</ref><ref>[[Start Here - 🤯 Meta-Crisis Meta-Resource]([Start Here - 🤯 Meta-Crisis Meta-Resource]([Start Here - 🤯 Meta-Crisis Meta-Resource]([Start Here - 🤯 Meta-Crisis Meta-Resource](https://metacrisis.org/)))) Meta-Crisis Meta-Resource]</ref><ref>[[- YouTube](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v====jHxTvvPZUuI) Confronting The Meta-Crisis: Criteria for Turning The Titanic, Terry Patten, 2019]</ref><ref>[[- YouTube](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v====Y7unE1SkpHc) Tasting the Pickle: Ten Flavours of Meta-Crisis, Jonathan Rowson, 2021]</ref><ref>[https://slatestarcodex.com/2020/04/01/book-review-the-precipice/ The Precipice - landscape of existential risks, Toby Ord, 2021]</ref><ref>[https://existential-risk.org/concept.pdf Existential Risk Prevention as Global Priority, Nick Bostrom, 2013]</ref><ref>[[Global catastrophic risk - Wikipedia]([Global catastrophic risk - Wikipedia](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Global_catastrophic_risk)) Global catastrophic risk wikipedia page]</ref><ref>[https://hpluspedia.org/index.php?title====Existential_risk&mobileaction====toggle_view_desktop Existential risk and dystopia map, Deku-shrub, 2021]</ref><ref>[[AI Existential Safety Map]([AI Existential Safety Map]([AI Existential Safety Map](https://aisafety.world/))) Map of AI existencial safety]</ref><ref>[[Why Meta & Metta?. Could we go two levels deeper than the… | by Jakub Simek | Meta & Metta | Medium]([Why Meta & Metta?. Could we go two levels deeper than the… | by Jakub Simek | Meta & Metta | Medium]([Why Meta & Metta?. Could we go two levels deeper than the… | by Jakub Simek | Meta & Metta | Medium]([Why Meta & Metta?. Could we go two levels deeper than the… | by Jakub Simek | Meta & Metta | Medium](https://medium.com/meta-metta/why-meta-metta-287baccde4c2)))) Rivalrous dynamics as generator functions of existential risks, Jakub Simek, 2019]</ref><ref>[[- YouTube](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v====4DnJxnEXB1g) How to save the planet from global warming, Tom Chi, 2016]</ref><ref>[https://twitter.com/rtk254/status/1528742051461865472 Polluted online epistemic environments impairing societies' ability to coordinate effectively, Ronen Tamari et al., 2022]</ref><ref>[[Center for Humane Technology]([Center for Humane Technology](https://www.humanetech.com/)) Center For Humane Technology: We envision a world where technology supports our shared well-being, sense-making, democracy, and ability to tackle complex global challenges]</ref><ref>[[Existential Hope]([Existential Hope]([Existential Hope](https://www.existentialhope.com/))) Existencial Hope: Let's aim for positive futures]</ref><ref>[https://enlightenedworldview.com/courses/meta-crisis/ The Meta-Crisis – What it is and what you can do about it]</ref><ref>[[A framework for comparing global problems in terms of expected impact - 80,000 Hours]([A framework for comparing global problems in terms of expected impact - 80,000 Hours]([A framework for comparing global problems in terms of expected impact - 80,000 Hours]([A framework for comparing global problems in terms of expected impact - 80,000 Hours]([A framework for comparing global problems in terms of expected impact - 80,000 Hours](https://80000hours.org/articles/problem-framework/))))) A framework for comparing global problems in terms of expected impact, Robert Wiblin, 2016]</ref><ref>[[The Consilience Project | The Consilience Project is a publication of the Civilization Research Institute (CRI)]([The Consilience Project | The Consilience Project is a publication of the Civilization Research Institute (CRI)]([The Consilience Project | The Consilience Project is a publication of the Civilization Research Institute (CRI)]([The Consilience Project | The Consilience Project is a publication of the Civilization Research Institute (CRI)]([The Consilience Project | The Consilience Project is a publication of the Civilization Research Institute (CRI)]([The Consilience Project | The Consilience Project is a publication of the Civilization Research Institute (CRI)]([The Consilience Project | The Consilience Project is a publication of the Civilization Research Institute (CRI)]([The Consilience Project | The Consilience Project is a publication of the Civilization Research Institute (CRI)]([The Consilience Project | The Consilience Project is a publication of the Civilization Research Institute (CRI)](https://consilienceproject.org/))))))))) The Consilience Project, Daniel Schmachtenberger]</ref> <references/> ======Prepared structures to be activated in case of an existencial risk realizing itself====== Nuclear fallouts, pandemic preparations,...<ref>[[A framework for comparing global problems in terms of expected impact - 80,000 Hours]([A framework for comparing global problems in terms of expected impact - 80,000 Hours]([A framework for comparing global problems in terms of expected impact - 80,000 Hours]([A framework for comparing global problems in terms of expected impact - 80,000 Hours]([A framework for comparing global problems in terms of expected impact - 80,000 Hours](https://80000hours.org/articles/problem-framework/))))) A framework for comparing global problems in terms of expected impact, Robert Wiblin, 2016]</ref> <references/> ======Alignment of clusters of biological and artificial agents====== =======Cooperation======= - diplomatic cooperation, reducing power asymmetries, regulations that are not opressive but help everyone, common knowledge of democracy theory, transparency, promoting long term big picture thinking, shared identity and goals<ref>[[The Consilience Project | The Consilience Project is a publication of the Civilization Research Institute (CRI)]([The Consilience Project | The Consilience Project is a publication of the Civilization Research Institute (CRI)]([The Consilience Project | The Consilience Project is a publication of the Civilization Research Institute (CRI)]([The Consilience Project | The Consilience Project is a publication of the Civilization Research Institute (CRI)]([The Consilience Project | The Consilience Project is a publication of the Civilization Research Institute (CRI)]([The Consilience Project | The Consilience Project is a publication of the Civilization Research Institute (CRI)]([The Consilience Project | The Consilience Project is a publication of the Civilization Research Institute (CRI)]([The Consilience Project | The Consilience Project is a publication of the Civilization Research Institute (CRI)]([The Consilience Project | The Consilience Project is a publication of the Civilization Research Institute (CRI)](https://consilienceproject.org/))))))))) The Consilience Project, Daniel Schmachtenberger]</ref>, finding middle ground between different values coexisting in nonconflicting cooperative peace. <references/> =======Failure modes=======