The answer to all of the problems is all of the solutions! There is not a theory of change, there's an ecology of theories of change! People can get fundamentalist about their particular solution because if you're working on something you should really care about it but in really caring about it you can become overly narrowly focused. Everything is complexly interacting, there's not a solution, there's lots of things that need to happen! I want patterns of how to think about it, and I want frameworks for how to think about it, I don't want people to attached to those frameworks because they'll be useful but also limiting and to realize the cultural aspects do involve education and media and parenting religion and lots of other things and the structure of cities and you know in the political economy aspects involve lots of things and so getting past the zealotists and reductionist focus and being able to get how do all these things come together is key to understanding properly! [- YouTube](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v===Kep8Fi_rUUI) Let's model societal system using the active inference model from complexity science and see different subsystems in our society as different cognitive architectures and different attempts to change as different differently succefull evolutionary pressures on those. How to create the most succesfull evolutionary pressures to steer civilization away from molochian (short term competitive local gain in power at the cost of everyone's long term wellbeing) selfdestruction? Moloch is the personification of the forces that coerce competing individuals to take actions which, although locally optimal, ultimately lead to situations where everyone is worse off. Moreover, no individual is able to unilaterally break out of the dynamic. The situation is a bad Nash equilibrium. A trap. https://www.lesswrong.com/tag/moloch How succesful are the current pressures? Where do we need more impactful solutions? Let's map it out! for policymakers, economics, governance, climate,... ====Summary==== There is a landscape of crises and (existencial) risks we face, landscape of solutions to them with different degrees of success, all acting as evolutionary forces in the Active Inference model of the global societal system ====Context==== The first outcome of the project will be a unifying map of literature that looks at approaches to identify threats to humanity and how to mitigate them with concrete actions. It will find similarities and synergies between the approaches, exploring both pessimistic and optimistic perspectives, including making positive future visions real. Examples of threats are AI risk, bioweapons, climate change, nuclear war, sensemaking and coordination failures, population wellbeing decline, adaptability, meaning and loneliness crisis. The results will be contextualized using technical but readable format of science based mathematical Active Inference modeling framework and communicated by articles, videos, online and offline lectures in high impact communities. The project will reach out to theoretical and applied researchers, allowing them to find problems to work on, and those working on similar problems to find collaborators, helping to increase the chances of a good future for everyone. Project goal is to create a science based literature that maps out and bridges different research and applied research communities looking into the problem of existential risks and population wellbeing. It will communicate it in relevant high impact places, leading to more effective global coordination about these problems. The project outcome will serve as a navigation map, connect compatible research groups together, as well as motivate and incentivize groups to advance progress on their respective solutions with supporting research. ====Introduction==== Metaanalysis and synthesis of research literature regarding various approaches to solving the problem of existential risks (including AI risk) and population wellbeing management. Using Active Inference and other complementing complex systems mathematical modelling and analysis tools as a concrete technical language to contextualize and synergize various approaches while finding novel solutions. Map out the space of proposed solutions. Create science based plans to reduce the probability of bad scenarios happening and reduce the probability of extinction if bad scenarios already happen. Communicate this research’s concrete solutions in research community and to places like Effective Altruism to implement the solutions in practice. For example how to increase collective rationalism, adaptability, resilience, mental hygiene, connection, coordination by better communication, alignment of biological and artificial agents, or having structures monitor and solve existential risks. ====Goal==== Project goal is to create a science based literature that bridges between different research and applied research communities that are solving the problem of existential risks and wellbeing, and creating new solutions, and communicating it in those places, creating more effective global coordination. If a research or applied research group uses my literature as a navigation map, or if I manage to connect compatible research groups together, or motivate or incentivize a group to advance progress on a solution that is missing (for example missing nuclear fallout shelters), I take that as a win. ====Abstract==== Some core insights are that we suffer from too much order, too little interconnected systemic thinking, excess of competition, disintegration of social cohesion, too little global coordination, not feeling moral responsibility for all future generations enough, lots of psychopathic active inference agents externalizing harm because of game theoretical short term local benefit ====Literature overview==== =====Metacrisis summary, synthesis of Daniel Schmachtenberger, Jonathan Rowson, Zak Stein, Daniel Thorson, Terry Patten, by Kyle Kowalski===== [[Meta Crisis 101: What is the Meta-Crisis? (+ Infographics) | Sloww]([Meta Crisis 101: What is the Meta-Crisis? (+ Infographics) | Sloww]([Meta Crisis 101: What is the Meta-Crisis? (+ Infographics) | Sloww]([Meta Crisis 101: What is the Meta-Crisis? (+ Infographics) | Sloww]([Meta Crisis 101: What is the Meta-Crisis? (+ Infographics) | Sloww]([Meta Crisis 101: What is the Meta-Crisis? (+ Infographics) | Sloww]([Meta Crisis 101: What is the Meta-Crisis? (+ Infographics) | Sloww]([Meta Crisis 101: What is the Meta-Crisis? (+ Infographics) | Sloww]([Meta Crisis 101: What is the Meta-Crisis? (+ Infographics) | Sloww]([Meta Crisis 101: What is the Meta-Crisis? (+ Infographics) | Sloww]([Meta Crisis 101: What is the Meta-Crisis? (+ Infographics) | Sloww]([Meta Crisis 101: What is the Meta-Crisis? (+ Infographics) | Sloww]([Meta Crisis 101: What is the Meta-Crisis? (+ Infographics) | Sloww](https://www.sloww.co/meta-crisis-101/))))))))))))) Meta Crisis 101: What is the Meta-Crisis? (+ Infographics), Kyle Kowalski] Metacrisis definition: Underlying crisis driving multitude of overlapping and interconnected global crises - ecological, governmental, economic, financial, geopolitical, energy, cultural, educational, epistemic, psychological, socio-emotional or spiritual crisis Alternatively: metacrisis is the crisis of perception and understanding that lies within the range of crises humanity faces Its more complex than everything going wrong using black and white pessimistic lens, there are things so much better in many ways as well, such as reducing poverty, illneses, increasing scientific progress. Some positive effects can in the big picture turn negative though. ====Unified literature==== [EA Survey 2020: Cause Prioritization — EA Forum Bots]([EA Survey 2020: Cause Prioritization — EA Forum Bots]([EA Survey 2020: Cause Prioritization — EA Forum Bots](https://forum.effectivealtruism.org/posts/83tEL2sHDTiWR6nwo/ea-survey-2020-cause-prioritization))) Positive statistics: Pinker Negative statistics: daniel schmachtenberger List of interconnected crises: List of concrete threats: Negative future predictions: Eliezer Yudkowski Positive future predictions: Andres Gomez Emmilson ====Active Inference Model==== Society can be seen as a superorganism that can be formalized as nested hiearchy of Active Inference agents,<ref>[https://direct.mit.edu/books/oa-monograph/5299/Active-InferenceThe-Free-Energy-Principle-in-Mind Active Inference: The Free Energy Principle in Mind, Brain, and Behavior, Karl Friston et al., 2022]</ref><ref>[[Entropy | Free Full-Text | An Active Inference Model of Collective Intelligence]([Entropy | Free Full-Text | An Active Inference Model of Collective Intelligence]([Entropy | Free Full-Text | An Active Inference Model of Collective Intelligence]([Entropy | Free Full-Text | An Active Inference Model of Collective Intelligence]([Entropy | Free Full-Text | An Active Inference Model of Collective Intelligence](https://www.mdpi.com/1099-4300/23/7/830)))))/htm An Active Inference Model of Collective Intelligence, Rafael Kaufmann et al., 2021]</ref><ref>[[- YouTube]([- YouTube](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v====QktnfpbYx7M)) The Romance of Reality, Universal Bayesianism, Bobby Azarian et al., 2023]</ref><ref>[[[2306.08014] Realising Synthetic Active Inference Agents, Part I: Epistemic Objectives and Graphical Specification Language]([[2306.08014] Realising Synthetic Active Inference Agents, Part I: Epistemic Objectives and Graphical Specification Language](https://arxiv.org/abs/2306.08014)) Realising Synthetic Active Inference Agents, Part I: Epistemic Objectives and Graphical Specification Language, Magnus Koudahl et al., 2023]</ref><ref>[[Principled Societies Project Home]([Principled Societies Project Home]([Principled Societies Project Home]([Principled Societies Project Home]([Principled Societies Project Home](https://principledsocietiesproject.org/))))) Science-Driven Societal Transformation, Part III: Design, John C. Boik, 2021]</ref><ref>[[2023 Course: "Constructing Cultural Landscapes: Active Inference for the Social Sciences"]([2023 Course: "Constructing Cultural Landscapes: Active Inference for the Social Sciences"](https://activeinferenceinstitute.substack.com/p/2023-course-constructing-cultural)) Constructing Cultural Landscapes: Active Inference for the Social Sciences, Active Inference Institute, 2023]</ref> that can be analyzed using a lot of other mathematical tools.<ref>[[Evolutionary Game Theory (Stanford Encyclopedia of Philosophy)]([Evolutionary Game Theory (Stanford Encyclopedia of Philosophy)]([Evolutionary Game Theory (Stanford Encyclopedia of Philosophy)]([Evolutionary Game Theory (Stanford Encyclopedia of Philosophy)]([Evolutionary Game Theory (Stanford Encyclopedia of Philosophy)]([Evolutionary Game Theory (Stanford Encyclopedia of Philosophy)]([Evolutionary Game Theory (Stanford Encyclopedia of Philosophy)](https://plato.stanford.edu/entries/game-evolutionary/))))))) Evolutionary Game Theory, Stanford Encyclopedia of Philosophy]</ref><ref>[[Physics - A New Science for Describing Unhealthy Online Environments]([Physics - A New Science for Describing Unhealthy Online Environments]([Physics - A New Science for Describing Unhealthy Online Environments](https://physics.aps.org/articles/v16/89))) A New Science for Describing Unhealthy Online Environments using nonlinear fluid dynamics, Elisabeth Wilhelm, 2023]</ref><ref>[[- YouTube]([- YouTube](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v====MNa8IIz3Kw8)) Four Layer Model of Social Systems, Jordan Hall, 2017]</ref><ref>[[- YouTube](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v====XzFEgR4tHa0) The Sombrero (Symmetry Breakage) Model of Political Polarization, Matthew Pirkowski, 2018]</ref><ref>[[Simulated annealing - Wikipedia]([Simulated annealing - Wikipedia]([Simulated annealing - Wikipedia]([Simulated annealing - Wikipedia]([Simulated annealing - Wikipedia](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Simulated_annealing))))) Simulated annealing]</ref><ref>[[- YouTube](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v====n6DqFX3UbJY) The Aesthetic of the Meta-Aesthetic: the Meaning Nexus Between Memeplexes, Andrés Gómez Emilsson et al., 2022]</ref><ref>[[[1705.07161] Statistical physics of human cooperation]([[1705.07161] Statistical physics of human cooperation]([[1705.07161] Statistical physics of human cooperation]([[1705.07161] Statistical physics of human cooperation]([[1705.07161] Statistical physics of human cooperation](https://arxiv.org/abs/1705.07161))))) Statistical physics of human cooperation, Matjaz Perc et al., 2017]</ref><ref>[[Mean-field theory of social laser | Scientific Reports]([Mean-field theory of social laser | Scientific Reports](https://www.nature.com/articles/s41598-022-12327-w)) Mean-field theory of social laser, Alexander P. Alodjants et al., 2022]</ref><ref>[[- YouTube]([- YouTube](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v====MNa8IIz3Kw8)) Coordination dynamics of multi-agent interaction in a musical ensemble, Shannon Proksch et al., 2022]</ref><ref>[[- YouTube](https://youtube.com/watch?v====37jR5IN1x78) The Coordination Dynamics of Multiple Agents, Mengsen Zhang, 2016]</ref> Active Inference agents create specialized cooperating or competing clusters in terms of free energy minimization strategies using different types of cultures.<ref>[[Epistemic Communities under Active Inference[v1] | Preprints.org]([Epistemic Communities under Active Inference[v1] | Preprints.org](https://www.preprints.org/manuscript/202201.0124/v1)) Epistemic Communities under Active Inference, Mahault Albarracin et al., 2022]</ref><ref>[[Thinking through other minds: A variational approach to cognition and culture - PubMed]([Thinking through other minds: A variational approach to cognition and culture - PubMed]([Thinking through other minds: A variational approach to cognition and culture - PubMed]([Thinking through other minds: A variational approach to cognition and culture - PubMed]([Thinking through other minds: A variational approach to cognition and culture - PubMed]([Thinking through other minds: A variational approach to cognition and culture - PubMed](https://pubmed.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/31142395/)))))) Thinking through other minds: A variational approach to cognition and culture, Maxwell J D Ramstead et al., 2019]</ref><ref>[[Entropy | Free Full-Text | A Variational Synthesis of Evolutionary and Developmental Dynamics]([Entropy | Free Full-Text | A Variational Synthesis of Evolutionary and Developmental Dynamics]([Entropy | Free Full-Text | A Variational Synthesis of Evolutionary and Developmental Dynamics]([Entropy | Free Full-Text | A Variational Synthesis of Evolutionary and Developmental Dynamics]([Entropy | Free Full-Text | A Variational Synthesis of Evolutionary and Developmental Dynamics]([Entropy | Free Full-Text | A Variational Synthesis of Evolutionary and Developmental Dynamics](https://www.mdpi.com/1099-4300/25/7/964)))))) A Variational Synthesis of Evolutionary and Developmental Dynamics, Karl Friston et al., 2023]</ref><ref>[[Deeply Felt Affect: The Emergence of Valence in Deep Active Inference - PubMed]([Deeply Felt Affect: The Emergence of Valence in Deep Active Inference - PubMed]([Deeply Felt Affect: The Emergence of Valence in Deep Active Inference - PubMed]([Deeply Felt Affect: The Emergence of Valence in Deep Active Inference - PubMed](https://pubmed.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/33253028/)))) Deeply Felt Affect: The Emergence of Valence in Deep Active Inference, Ryan Smith et al., 2021]</ref> By mathematical analysis of model's properties, we can find out how fit the whole system, the humanity, is to its environment, and how to direct it towards a more fit state. <references/> ====Literature review in the context of Active Inference==== =====Metacrisis summary, synthesis of Daniel Schmachtenberger, Jonathan Rowson, Zak Stein, Daniel Thorson, Terry Patten, by Kyle Kowalski===== [[Meta Crisis 101: What is the Meta-Crisis? (+ Infographics) | Sloww]([Meta Crisis 101: What is the Meta-Crisis? (+ Infographics) | Sloww]([Meta Crisis 101: What is the Meta-Crisis? (+ Infographics) | Sloww]([Meta Crisis 101: What is the Meta-Crisis? (+ Infographics) | Sloww]([Meta Crisis 101: What is the Meta-Crisis? (+ Infographics) | Sloww]([Meta Crisis 101: What is the Meta-Crisis? (+ Infographics) | Sloww]([Meta Crisis 101: What is the Meta-Crisis? (+ Infographics) | Sloww]([Meta Crisis 101: What is the Meta-Crisis? (+ Infographics) | Sloww]([Meta Crisis 101: What is the Meta-Crisis? (+ Infographics) | Sloww]([Meta Crisis 101: What is the Meta-Crisis? (+ Infographics) | Sloww]([Meta Crisis 101: What is the Meta-Crisis? (+ Infographics) | Sloww]([Meta Crisis 101: What is the Meta-Crisis? (+ Infographics) | Sloww]([Meta Crisis 101: What is the Meta-Crisis? (+ Infographics) | Sloww](https://www.sloww.co/meta-crisis-101/))))))))))))) Meta Crisis 101: What is the Meta-Crisis? (+ Infographics), Kyle Kowalski] ======Metacrisis definition====== Underlying crisis driving multitude of overlapping and interconnected global crises - ecological, governmental, economic, financial, geopolitical, energy, cultural, educational, epistemic, psychological, socio-emotional or spiritual crisis Alternatively: metacrisis is the crisis of perception and understanding that lies within the range of crises humanity faces Its more complex than everything going wrong using black and white pessimistic lens, there are things so much better in many ways as well, such as reducing poverty, illneses, increasing scientific progress. Some positive effects can in the big picture turn negative though. Ecological ==== We are hurting out environment that we need for survival. 1. SENSE-MAKING CRISIS (WHAT IS THE CASE?): “Confusion at the level of understanding the nature of the world. Everyday people and experts are struggling to say things that are true, unable to comprehend increasing complexity.” Worst-case scenario: “complete epistemic unmooring and descent into the cultural vertigo of an inescapable simulation.” Best-case scenario: “emergent forms of post-digital individual and collective sense-making spreading on a massive scale.” 2. CAPABILITY CRISIS (HOW CAN IT BE DONE?): “Incapacity at the level of operating on the world intelligently. In all social positions and domains of work, individuals are increasingly unable to engage in problem- solving to the degree needed for continued social integration.” Worst-case scenario: “results in catastrophic infrastructure failure due to a brain-power shortage.” Best-case scenario: “revivification of guilds and technical educational initiatives for a new economics of social system integration.” 3. LEGITIMACY CRISIS (WHO SHOULD DO IT?): “Incoherence at the level of cultural agreements. Political and bureaucratic forms of power are failing to provide sufficiently convincing rationale and justification for trust in their continued authority.” Worst-case scenario: “complete citizen-level defection from all organised political bodies.” Best-case scenario: “new forms of governance and collective choice-making that are built out from first principles, factoring in dynamics that are digital and planetary.” 4. MEANING CRISIS (WHY DO IT?): “Inauthenticity at the level of personal experience. Individuals from all walks of life are questioning the purpose of their existence, the goodness of the world, and the value of ethics, beauty, and truth.” "Crisis of 'we'" Worst-case scenario: “peak alienation and a total mental health crisis.” Best-case scenario: “democratisation of enlightenment, sanity and psychological sovereignty.” =======Active Inference context======= Humanity superorganism is a system made out of nested interacting systems (governing parts, social groups), active inference agent preserved by a nested hiearchy/hetearchy/anarchy of markov blankets corresponding to different concrete (governing institution) or abstract (subculture) substructures.