Left and right culture war is still getting stronger and stronger. This disallows the ability to do rational democracy. [[What's Our Problem? - YouTube]([What's Our Problem? - YouTube]([What's Our Problem? - YouTube](https://youtu.be/KRl5301kQoI))?si=VWpKmjSD4EeLEcRR) What's Our Problem? - YouTube] ==Science -> Social systems -> Concrete phenomena -> Current state of our world and its future -> Loss of social cohesion from polarization risk -> Left right culture war -> Solutions -> Cultivating common ground== [[Exit the Void: A Movement for Meaning - YouTube]([Exit the Void: A Movement for Meaning - YouTube](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=BqB-1ABZJSM)) Exit the Void: A Movement for Meaning - YouTube] ==Science -> Social systems -> Concrete phenomena -> Current state of our world and its future -> Geopolitical crisis== Geopolitical tensions like in cold war are increasing again, USA, Europe versus Russia, China. ==Science -> Social systems -> Concrete phenomena -> Current state of our world and its future -> Economical crisis== Economical crisis is a spectrum and some countries do better than others. Covid has damaged lots of economies. Sri landa collapsed recently. People's savings go to trash, making people poor. ==Science -> Social systems -> Concrete phenomena -> Current state of our world and its future -> Economical crisis -> Unsustainability== Some people argue our economic system is fundamentally unsustainable, because its built on exponentially growing GDP (and critique GDP being a good measure of progress) and thus exponentially extracting resources that replenish linearly or never. Finding new resources can help. Technology can help build better more susianable resources or digitalize economy, but it all still runs on finite physical processes. When we look at why past cities collapsed, one of the common reasons is unsustainability trap. [[The Dark Side of Conscious Ai | Daniel Schmachtenberger - YouTube]([The Dark Side of Conscious Ai | Daniel Schmachtenberger - YouTube](https://youtu.be/g7WtcTATa2U)?si=80JltDNx1hjOsBuO&t=1853) Daniel Schmachtenberger: Will Technology Destroy Us? - YouTube] Economy is also critiqued for seeing tree as how much money you get from the wood, instead of it being part of giant ecosystem which when breaks down causes droughts and can cascade to food scarsity from climate breakdown. [[DANIEL SCHMACHTENBERGER FULL | GITA MASTER SERIES - YouTube](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=nvAbKE8-jYA) DANIEL SCHMACHTENBERGER FULL | GITA MASTER SERIES - YouTube] Some say that world economy is basically a pyramid scheme. [[The World Economy Is A Pyramid Scheme, Steven Chu Says](https://www.forbes.com/sites/jeffmcmahon/2019/04/05/the-world-economy-is-a-pyramid-scheme-steven-chu-says/) The World Economy Is A Pyramid Scheme, Steven Chu Says] ==Science -> Social systems -> Concrete phenomena -> Current state of our world and its future -> Inequality raising== Rich and poor divide is increasing, leading to the bottom percentages having less and less ability to do stuff. ==Science -> Social systems -> Concrete phenomena -> Current state of our world and its future -> Economical crisis -> Current economy as solution to prevent wars not working anymore== ==Science -> Social systems -> Concrete phenomena -> Current state of our world and its future -> Nuclear war risk== [[[What are the most pressing world problems?]([What are the most pressing world problems?]([What are the most pressing world problems?]([What are the most pressing world problems?](https://80000hours.org/problem-profiles/))))nuclear-security/ Nuclear war - 80,000 Hours] Nuclear war - 80,000 Hours] As tensions increase, nuclear war gets more probable. The current economic system was a solution to no wars happening after WW2, where growth was not mediated by war but by exponentially growing GDP of economies, which might be breaking now with exponential extraction of resources that replenish linearly and Russia is under such pressure which results in it attacking Ukraine. If we assume all nations want to fundamentally expontentially grow by GDP, technology, resources and other means, and if physically nonviolent ways of growing are not an option anymore, they use war to conquer and grow, is this Russia's current state? Would financially helping them instead of sanctions paradoxically help the war other than accelerate? Or would it accelerate as their tense hatred of EU/USA etc. and need for annihilation could be used realized more efficiently? Or are sanctions strong enough to kill all their power to conquer? Maybe there's some middle way to minimize the growth tension that leads to the war? Should Russia be disintegrated to end it's evolutionary pressures for war? [[In Search of the Third Attractor, Daniel Schmachtenberger (part 1) - YouTube]([In Search of the Third Attractor, Daniel Schmachtenberger (part 1) - YouTube](https://youtu.be/8XCXvzQdcug?t===2320)) In Search of the Third Attractor, Daniel Schmachtenberger (part 1) - YouTube] [[Daniel Schmachtenberger | On Meta Crisis, Anti Fragility, and Global Coordination (#71) - YouTube]([Daniel Schmachtenberger | On Meta Crisis, Anti Fragility, and Global Coordination (#71) - YouTube](https://youtu.be/zQ0l56vjTss?t===850)) Daniel Schmachtenberger | On Meta Crisis, Anti Fragility, and Global Coordination (#71) - YouTube] ==Science -> Social systems -> Concrete phenomena -> Current state of our world and its future -> Solutions -> Reducing geopolitical tensions== Diplomacy. ==Science -> Social systems -> Concrete phenomena -> Current state of our world and its future -> Preparing -> Nuclear winter infrastructure -> Growing food== [[How to feed everyone in a nuclear or volcanic winter | TABLE Debates](https://tabledebates.org/research-library/how-feed-everyone-nuclear-winter) How to feed everyone in a nuclear or volcanic winter] ==Science -> Social systems -> Concrete phenomena -> Current state of our world and its future -> Technology -> Automation -> Moloch at the core== Some people propose that accelerated automation is accelerating all other multipolar traps with molochian unstable dynamics and we might loose control over them, leading to disintegration of coordination and our civilizational system. [https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/LpM3EAakwYdS6aRKf/what-multipolar-failure-looks-like-and-robust-agent-agnostic What Multipolar Failure Looks Like, and Robust Agent-Agnostic Processes (RAAPs)] [[Daniel Schmachtenberger: "Artificial Intelligence and The Superorganism" | The Great Simplification - YouTube]([Daniel Schmachtenberger: "Artificial Intelligence and The Superorganism" | The Great Simplification - YouTube]([Daniel Schmachtenberger: "Artificial Intelligence and The Superorganism" | The Great Simplification - YouTube]([Daniel Schmachtenberger: "Artificial Intelligence and The Superorganism" | The Great Simplification - YouTube]([Daniel Schmachtenberger: "Artificial Intelligence and The Superorganism" | The Great Simplification - YouTube](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=_P8PLHvZygo))))) Daniel Schmachtenberger: "Artificial Intelligence and The Superorganism" | The Great Simplification - YouTube] It's a natural force in our system. Competition can make more decentralized unregulated progress faster, but too much of competition and individualization and lack of global cooperation leads to problems like companies causing climate change because they would loose in the economical system, so what seems to only work is to regulate them by carbon tax (but even there corruption or lack of empirical reasoning can make mess), or make clean technologies more economically benefitial by rewarding their use or investing in their advancement. People racing in developing advanced AI to be first on the market without doing sufficient AI safety research is another example of molochian dynamics. ==Science -> Social systems -> Concrete phenomena -> Current state of our world and its future -> Technology -> Automation -> Moloch at the core -> My thoughts== Molochian dynamics can accelerate other molochian dynamics in feedback loop, potentially leading to disintegration of our system because of lack of global top down or bottom up emergent cooperation. I think this is currently the most probable risk: [https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/LpM3EAakwYdS6aRKf/what-multipolar-failure-looks-like-and-robust-agent-agnostic What Multipolar Failure Looks Like, and Robust Agent-Agnostic Processes (RAAPs)] and what are currently the most efficient interventions are those that incentivize top down or bottom cooperation! Synergy of culture of connection, cooperation inducing governance and regulations, mass AI powered education about all of this that weakens emergence of molochian multipolar traps. ==Science -> Social systems -> Concrete phenomena -> Current state of our world and its future -> Technology -> Automation -> Solution -> Slow down/pause/stop automation== [[Daniel Schmachtenberger: "Artificial Intelligence and The Superorganism" | The Great Simplification - YouTube]([Daniel Schmachtenberger: "Artificial Intelligence and The Superorganism" | The Great Simplification - YouTube]([Daniel Schmachtenberger: "Artificial Intelligence and The Superorganism" | The Great Simplification - YouTube]([Daniel Schmachtenberger: "Artificial Intelligence and The Superorganism" | The Great Simplification - YouTube]([Daniel Schmachtenberger: "Artificial Intelligence and The Superorganism" | The Great Simplification - YouTube](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=_P8PLHvZygo))))) Daniel Schmachtenberger: "Artificial Intelligence and The Superorganism" | The Great Simplification - YouTube] ==Science -> Social systems -> Concrete phenomena -> Current state of our world and its future -> Technology -> Artificial Intelligence== AI is considered as pretty big risk by some [[Eliezer Yudkowsky - Why AI Will Kill Us, Aligning LLMs, Nature of Intelligence, SciFi, & Rationality - YouTube](https://youtu.be/41SUp-TRVlg?si=qvZLKdbBfphOKaOC) Eliezer Yudkowsky - Why AI Will Kill Us, Aligning LLMs, Nature of Intelligence, SciFi, & Rationality - YouTube], but less of a risk by others. [[Joscha Bach—How to Stop Worrying and Love AI - YouTube]([Joscha Bach—How to Stop Worrying and Love AI - YouTube]([Joscha Bach—How to Stop Worrying and Love AI - YouTube](https://youtu.be/YeXHQts3xYM))?si=4i6lCNT5nXj9EMVi) Joscha Bach—How to Stop Worrying and Love AI - YouTube] Some believe it should be the highest current priority to mitigate and we have to slow it down, while others believe it should be accelerated because it will solve all our problems. [[Joscha Bach and Connor Leahy [HQ VERSION] - YouTube]([Joscha Bach and Connor Leahy [HQ VERSION] - YouTube](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Z02Obj8j6FQ)) Joscha Bach and Connor Leahy] AI, even tho it has upsides, language models and fancy image generators, more science, other technology, economical and overall progress, VR worlds and so on, has also lots of downsides. There are lots of existencial risks, from accidents by cluelessness or arms races to malicious use by bad agents to rogue AI. [[[2306.12001] An Overview of Catastrophic AI Risks]([[2306.12001] An Overview of Catastrophic AI Risks]([[2306.12001] An Overview of Catastrophic AI Risks]([[2306.12001] An Overview of Catastrophic AI Risks](https://arxiv.org/abs/2306.12001)))) [2306.12001] An Overview of Catastrophic AI Risks] [[Carl Shulman (Pt 1) - Intelligence Explosion, Primate Evolution, Robot Doublings, & Alignment - YouTube](https://youtu.be/_kRg-ZP1vQc?si=78uS2g9clMNPYkFG) Carl Shulman (Pt 1) - Intelligence Explosion, Primate Evolution, Robot Doublings, & Alignment - YouTube] Increased automation in general is making our system's molochian unsustainable dynamics faster, increasing chances of civilizational disintegration. [https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/LpM3EAakwYdS6aRKf/what-multipolar-failure-looks-like-and-robust-agent-agnostic What Multipolar Failure Looks Like, and Robust Agent-Agnostic Processes (RAAPs)] [[Daniel Schmachtenberger: "Artificial Intelligence and The Superorganism" | The Great Simplification - YouTube]([Daniel Schmachtenberger: "Artificial Intelligence and The Superorganism" | The Great Simplification - YouTube]([Daniel Schmachtenberger: "Artificial Intelligence and The Superorganism" | The Great Simplification - YouTube]([Daniel Schmachtenberger: "Artificial Intelligence and The Superorganism" | The Great Simplification - YouTube]([Daniel Schmachtenberger: "Artificial Intelligence and The Superorganism" | The Great Simplification - YouTube](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=_P8PLHvZygo))))) Daniel Schmachtenberger: "Artificial Intelligence and The Superorganism" | The Great Simplification - YouTube] [[Existential risk from artificial general intelligence - Wikipedia](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Existential_risk_from_artificial_general_intelligence) Existential risk from artificial general intelligence - Wikipedia] [[What are the most pressing world problems?]([What are the most pressing world problems?]([What are the most pressing world problems?]([What are the most pressing world problems?](https://80000hours.org/problem-profiles/))))artificial-intelligence/ Preventing an AI-related catastrophe - 80,000 Hours] ==Science -> Social systems -> Concrete phenomena -> Current state of our world and its future -> Technology -> Artificial Intelligence -> Misalignment risk== ==Science -> Social systems -> Concrete phenomena -> Current state of our world and its future -> Technology -> Artificial Intelligence -> Misalignment risk-> Solution -> AI safety== ==Science -> Social systems -> Concrete phenomena -> Current state of our world and its future -> Technology -> Artificial Intelligence -> Incompetence risk== ==Science -> Social systems -> Concrete phenomena -> Current state of our world and its future -> Technology -> Artificial Intelligence -> Incompetence risk -> Solution -> Education== ==Science -> Social systems -> Concrete phenomena -> Current state of our world and its future -> Technology -> Artificial Intelligence -> Incompetence risk -> Solution -> Driver's licence== ==Science -> Social systems -> Concrete phenomena -> Current state of our world and its future -> Technology -> Artificial Intelligence -> Arms races between AI labs instead of prioritizing safety testing== AI labs race who will be first on the market, instead of doing proper AI safety testing, leading to increased likehoods of various risks. Another case of Moloch. ==Science -> Social systems -> Concrete phenomena -> Current state of our world and its future -> Technology -> Artificial Intelligence -> Malicious use by bad agents== ==Science -> Social systems -> Concrete phenomena -> Current state of our world and its future -> Technology -> Artificial Intelligence -> Pause AI/slow down AI/stop AI== There are movements that wants to pause AI development because of its danger. Some want complete stop. In extreme cases that would be degrowth. Some want pause or slow down of AI labs racing to be first on the market without doing proper safety so that we can catch up with safety and interpretability research to understand their mechanisms, capacibilities and methods of aligning them as foundationally as possible. [[Pause For Thought: The AI Pause Debate - by Scott Alexander]([Pause For Thought: The AI Pause Debate - by Scott Alexander]([Pause For Thought: The AI Pause Debate - by Scott Alexander](https://www.astralcodexten.com/p/pause-for-thought-the-ai-pause-debate))) Pause For Thought: The AI Pause Debate - by Scott Alexander] [[Max Tegmark: The Case for Halting AI Development | Lex Fridman Podcast #371 - YouTube]([Max Tegmark: The Case for Halting AI Development | Lex Fridman Podcast #371 - YouTube]([Max Tegmark: The Case for Halting AI Development | Lex Fridman Podcast #371 - YouTube]([Max Tegmark: The Case for Halting AI Development | Lex Fridman Podcast #371 - YouTube]([Max Tegmark: The Case for Halting AI Development | Lex Fridman Podcast #371 - YouTube]([Max Tegmark: The Case for Halting AI Development | Lex Fridman Podcast #371 - YouTube](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=VcVfceTsD0A)))))) Max Tegmark: The Case for Halting AI Development | Lex Fridman Podcast #371 - YouTube] Max Tegmark: The Case for Halting AI Development | Lex Fridman Podcast #371 - YouTube] [[Stop AGI]([Stop AGI](https://www.stop.ai/)) Stop AGI] [[We need to Pause AI](https://pauseai.info) We need to Pause AI] [[Five big takeaways from Europe's AI Act | MIT Technology Review](https://www.technologyreview.com/2023/06/19/1075063/five-big-takeaways-from-europes-ai-act/) Five big takeaways from Europe's AI Act | MIT Technology Review] [[Artificial Intelligence 2023 Legislation](https://www.ncsl.org/technology-and-communication/artificial-intelligence-2023-legislation) Artificial Intelligence 2023 USA Legislations Summary] [[Daniel Schmachtenberger: "Artificial Intelligence and The Superorganism" | The Great Simplification - YouTube]([Daniel Schmachtenberger: "Artificial Intelligence and The Superorganism" | The Great Simplification - YouTube]([Daniel Schmachtenberger: "Artificial Intelligence and The Superorganism" | The Great Simplification - YouTube]([Daniel Schmachtenberger: "Artificial Intelligence and The Superorganism" | The Great Simplification - YouTube]([Daniel Schmachtenberger: "Artificial Intelligence and The Superorganism" | The Great Simplification - YouTube](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=_P8PLHvZygo))))) Daniel Schmachtenberger: "Artificial Intelligence and The Superorganism" | The Great Simplification - YouTube] ==Science -> Social systems -> Concrete phenomena -> Current state of our world and its future -> Technology -> Other cyberweapons== ==Science -> Social systems -> Concrete phenomena -> Current state of our world and its future -> Governance crisis== Some people propose there isn't strong enough top down coordination to direct technology instead of technology direct us. ==Science -> Social systems -> Concrete phenomena -> Current state of our world and its future -> Stenghtening democracy== Strenghtening democracy through politics. Making AI values democratically chosen as well. [https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/ncb2ycEB3ymNqzs93/democratic-fine-tuning Democratic Fine-tuning with a Moral Graph] ==Science -> Social systems -> Concrete phenomena -> Current state of our world and its future -> Parenting crisis== Some people propose parenting is at the core of everything and should be made better. ==Science -> Social systems -> Concrete phenomena -> Current state of our world and its future -> Educational crisis== Reform of educational system. [[The Consilience Project | The Consilience Project is a publication of the Civilization Research Institute (CRI)]([The Consilience Project | The Consilience Project is a publication of the Civilization Research Institute (CRI)]([The Consilience Project | The Consilience Project is a publication of the Civilization Research Institute (CRI)]([The Consilience Project | The Consilience Project is a publication of the Civilization Research Institute (CRI)]([The Consilience Project | The Consilience Project is a publication of the Civilization Research Institute (CRI)]([The Consilience Project | The Consilience Project is a publication of the Civilization Research Institute (CRI)]([The Consilience Project | The Consilience Project is a publication of the Civilization Research Institute (CRI)]([The Consilience Project | The Consilience Project is a publication of the Civilization Research Institute (CRI)]([The Consilience Project | The Consilience Project is a publication of the Civilization Research Institute (CRI)](https://consilienceproject.org/))))))))) The Consilience Project | The Consilience Project is a publication of the Civilization Research Institute (CRI)]