==Science -> Social systems -> Concrete phenomena -> Cultures -> Religions -> Christianity== ==Science -> Social systems -> Concrete phenomena -> Cultures -> Religions -> Buddhism== ==Science -> Social systems -> Concrete phenomena -> Cultures -> Ideologies== ==Science -> Social systems -> Concrete phenomena -> Cultures -> Ideologies -> Left== ==Science -> Social systems -> Concrete phenomena -> Cultures -> Ideologies -> Right== ==Science -> Social systems -> Concrete phenomena -> Cultures -> Ideologies -> Unity == [[What's Our Problem? - YouTube]([What's Our Problem? - YouTube]([What's Our Problem? - YouTube](https://youtu.be/KRl5301kQoI))?si=MT1Es56svW_jdgsG) What's Our Problem? - YouTube] [[Exit the Void: A Movement for Meaning - YouTube]([Exit the Void: A Movement for Meaning - YouTube](https://youtu.be/BqB-1ABZJSM)?si=Iev8oYjl5Eo6v2H4) Exit the Void: A Movement for Meaning - YouTube] ==Science -> Social systems -> Concrete phenomena -> Current state of our world and its future== Many statistics about the world are looking bright! [[Is the world getting better or worse? A look at the numbers | Steven Pinker - YouTube]([Is the world getting better or worse? A look at the numbers | Steven Pinker - YouTube](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=yCm9Ng0bbEQ)) Is the world getting better or worse? A look at the numbers | Steven Pinker - YouTube] Poverty is going down for example. We have better than ever healthcare technology. But at what costs? let's look at all the numbers. In this chapter we delve into what is the current state of the world and its future. What crises people propose and what does the data imply? what are possible futures? What existencial risks are more and more probable? What are the solutions to mitigating, preventing bad things from happening? How to solve causes and symptoms of the world's biggest problems? What to do if things already go bad? When trying to enact solutions, how to take in account that many people are trying many different things? These risks and what they're affecting don't exist in isolation. For example AI is affecting lots of things in our system, such as education and culture. And for example, there are people trying to both pause AI and accelerate AI, which results in both attempts happening in different parts of our system and interacting with eachother. Multiple things need to happen together, for example AI doesn't exist in isolation, solutions should synergize together, maximizing their advantages, minimizing their disadvantages! We should also remember that predicting future is hard, because humanity is a chaotic system sensitive to intial conditions and we have finite computational power to grasp the complexity of the world, that might be irreducible on such a scale. [[Anders Sandberg - Grand Futures – Thinking Truly Long Term - YouTube]([Anders Sandberg - Grand Futures – Thinking Truly Long Term - YouTube]([Anders Sandberg - Grand Futures – Thinking Truly Long Term - YouTube]([Anders Sandberg - Grand Futures – Thinking Truly Long Term - YouTube](https://youtu.be/5fPOYEHHy4I)))?si=y-L4Bepma2rcMS6G) Anders Sandberg - Grand Futures – Thinking Truly Long Term - YouTube] Lots of visions are forming the future more than predicting it! [[What are the most pressing world problems?]([What are the most pressing world problems?]([What are the most pressing world problems?]([What are the most pressing world problems?](https://80000hours.org/problem-profiles/)))) What are the most pressing world problems? 80000 hours] [https://www.weforum.org/reports/global-risks-report-2023/ Global Risks Report 2023 | World Economic Forum | World Economic Forum] [[EA Survey 2020: Cause Prioritization — EA Forum Bots]([EA Survey 2020: Cause Prioritization — EA Forum Bots]([EA Survey 2020: Cause Prioritization — EA Forum Bots](https://forum.effectivealtruism.org/posts/83tEL2sHDTiWR6nwo/ea-survey-2020-cause-prioritization))) EA Survey 2020: Cause Prioritization — EA Forum Bots] [[THE HUMAN FUTURE: A Case for Optimism - YouTube]([THE HUMAN FUTURE: A Case for Optimism - YouTube](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=o48X3_XQ9to)) THE HUMAN FUTURE: A Case for Optimism - YouTube] [[Meta Crisis 101: What is the Meta-Crisis? (+ Infographics) | Sloww]([Meta Crisis 101: What is the Meta-Crisis? (+ Infographics) | Sloww]([Meta Crisis 101: What is the Meta-Crisis? (+ Infographics) | Sloww]([Meta Crisis 101: What is the Meta-Crisis? (+ Infographics) | Sloww]([Meta Crisis 101: What is the Meta-Crisis? (+ Infographics) | Sloww]([Meta Crisis 101: What is the Meta-Crisis? (+ Infographics) | Sloww]([Meta Crisis 101: What is the Meta-Crisis? (+ Infographics) | Sloww]([Meta Crisis 101: What is the Meta-Crisis? (+ Infographics) | Sloww]([Meta Crisis 101: What is the Meta-Crisis? (+ Infographics) | Sloww]([Meta Crisis 101: What is the Meta-Crisis? (+ Infographics) | Sloww]([Meta Crisis 101: What is the Meta-Crisis? (+ Infographics) | Sloww]([Meta Crisis 101: What is the Meta-Crisis? (+ Infographics) | Sloww]([Meta Crisis 101: What is the Meta-Crisis? (+ Infographics) | Sloww](https://www.sloww.co/meta-crisis-101/))))))))))))) Meta Crisis 101: What is the Meta-Crisis? (+ Infographics), Kyle Kowalski] [[metacrisis.xyz]([metacrisis.xyz]([metacrisis.xyz]([metacrisis.xyz]([metacrisis.xyz](https://metacrisis.xyz/))))) Metacrisis literacy overview] ==Science -> Social systems -> Concrete phenomena -> Current state of our world and its future -> Poverty== [[Is the world getting better or worse? A look at the numbers | Steven Pinker - YouTube]([Is the world getting better or worse? A look at the numbers | Steven Pinker - YouTube](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=yCm9Ng0bbEQ)) Is the world getting better or worse? A look at the numbers | Steven Pinker - YouTube] Poverty is going down, but we still need to solve it. ==Science -> Social systems -> Concrete phenomena -> Current state of our world and its future -> Energy crisis== ==Science -> Social systems -> Concrete phenomena -> Current state of our world and its future -> Housing crisis== ==Science -> Social systems -> Concrete phenomena -> Current state of our world and its future -> Immigration crisis== Amount of climate and economical migrants is and will raise exponentially, do we have the capacity to integrate them in the developed world? ==Science -> Social systems -> Concrete phenomena -> Current state of our world and its future -> Multipolar traps aka moloch== I'm gonna start with explaining one simple concept from game theory that's gonna show up everywhere as we discuss various crises and risks. Multipolar traps aka Moloch is a risk that is under lots of other risks driving lots of crises. Moloch is the personification of the forces that coerce competing individuals to take actions which, although locally optimal, ultimately lead to situations where everyone is worse off. Moreover, no individual is able to unilaterally break out of the dynamic. The situation is a bad Nash equilibrium. A trap. One example of a multipolar trap, a Molochian dynamic, is a Red Queen race between scientists who must continually spend more time writing grant applications just to keep up with their peers doing the same. Through unavoidable competition, they have all lost time while not ending up with any more grant money. And any scientist who unilaterally tried to not engage in the competition would soon be replaced by one who still does. If they all promised to cap their grant writing time, everyone would face an incentive to defect. [https://www.lesswrong.com/tag/moloch Moloch definition of LessWrong] More examples are the Prisoner's Dilemma, dollar auctions, overfishing, Malthusian trap, capitalism, two-income trap, agriculture, arms races (technology, nuclear weapons), races to the bottom, education system, science, and government corruption and corporate welfare. ==Science -> Social systems -> Concrete phenomena -> Current state of our world and its future -> Ecological breakdown risk== ==Science -> Social systems -> Concrete phenomena -> Current state of our world and its future -> Ecological breakdown risk -> Pollution== ==Science -> Social systems -> Concrete phenomena -> Current state of our world and its future -> Ecological breakdown risk -> Pollution -> Oceans== ==Science -> Social systems -> Concrete phenomena -> Current state of our world and its future -> Ecological breakdown risk -> Pollution -> Green lands== ==Science -> Social systems -> Concrete phenomena -> Current state of our world and its future -> Ecological breakdown risk -> Pollution -> Rain water== Globally not safe to drink anymore. [[Rainwater everywhere on Earth unsafe to drink due to ‘forever chemicals’, study finds | Euronews](https://www.euronews.com/green/2022/08/04/rainwater-everywhere-on-earth-unsafe-to-drink-due-to-forever-chemicals-study-finds) Rainwater everywhere on Earth unsafe to drink due to ‘forever chemicals’, study finds] ==Science -> Social systems -> Concrete phenomena -> Current state of our world and its future -> Ecological breakdown risk -> Deforestation== ==Science -> Social systems -> Concrete phenomena -> Current state of our world and its future -> Ecological breakdown risk -> Species== ==Science -> Social systems -> Concrete phenomena -> Current state of our world and its future -> Ecological breakdown risk -> Overfishing== ==Science -> Social systems -> Concrete phenomena -> Current state of our world and its future -> Ecological breakdown risk -> Climate change== Probably won't lead to total extinction, but can pose a great thread ot our whole civilization, such as destabilization from food scarity. [[Climate change - Wikipedia](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Climate_change) Climate change wiki] [[AR6 Synthesis Report: Climate Change 2023]([AR6 Synthesis Report: Climate Change 2023]([AR6 Synthesis Report: Climate Change 2023]([AR6 Synthesis Report: Climate Change 2023]([AR6 Synthesis Report: Climate Change 2023](https://www.ipcc.ch/report/ar6/syr/))))) AR6 Synthesis Report Climate Change 2023] [[We WILL Fix Climate Change! - YouTube](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=LxgMdjyw8uw) We WILL Fix Climate Change! - YouTube] [[Can YOU Fix Climate Change? - YouTube](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=yiw6_JakZFc) Can YOU Fix Climate Change? - YouTube] [[Who Is Responsible For Climate Change? – Who Needs To Fix It? - YouTube](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ipVxxxqwBQw) Who Is Responsible For Climate Change? – Who Needs To Fix It? - YouTube] [[Is It Too Late To Stop Climate Change? Well, it's Complicated. - YouTube](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=wbR-5mHI6bo) Is It Too Late To Stop Climate Change? Well, it's Complicated. - YouTube] [[Do we Need Nuclear Energy to Stop Climate Change? - YouTube](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=EhAemz1v7dQ) Do we Need Nuclear Energy to Stop Climate Change? - YouTube] [[Geoengineering: A Horrible Idea We Might Have to Do - YouTube](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=dSu5sXmsur4) Geoengineering: A Horrible Idea We Might Have to Do - YouTube] [[Kurzgesagt and the art of climate greenwashing - YouTube](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=uCuy1DaQzWI) Kurzgesagt and the art of climate greenwashing - YouTube] ==Science -> Social systems -> Concrete phenomena -> Current state of our world and its future -> Ecological breakdown risk -> Climate change -> Statistics== Greenhouse gases are still globally raising, even tho locally it might not. In europe its lowering. But in USA, China, Russia its still raising. [[Climate Change 2022: Impacts, Adaptation and Vulnerability | Climate Change 2022: Impacts, Adaptation and Vulnerability](https://www.ipcc.ch/report/ar6/wg2/) Climate Change 2022: Impacts, Adaptation and Vulnerability | Climate Change 2022: Impacts, Adaptation and Vulnerability] ==Science -> Social systems -> Concrete phenomena -> Current state of our world and its future -> Ecological breakdown risk -> Climate change -> Solutions== ==Science -> Social systems -> Concrete phenomena -> Current state of our world and its future -> Ecological breakdown risk -> Climate change -> Solutions -> Stop greenhouse gases production== Simple, right? Stop producing CO2. But this isn't as easy. Companies have to do it out of their will and agree together. it would be benefitial for everyone if everyone stopped causing climate change, but its not happening because of competition on the market. If my rival won't stop, i won't as well, if I don't wanna economically loose. This is a special case of above mentioned multipolar trap. For example social/moral pressure or regulations have to direct them instead, since emegent bottomup global coordination doesnt work. ==Science -> Social systems -> Concrete phenomena -> Current state of our world and its future -> Ecological breakdown risk -> Climate change -> Solutions -> Carbon capture== [[Carbon capture and storage - Wikipedia](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Carbon_capture_and_storage) Carbon capture and storage wiki] ==Science -> Social systems -> Concrete phenomena -> Current state of our world and its future -> Ecological breakdown risk -> Climate change -> Solutions -> Clean energy== [[Renewable energy - Wikipedia](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Renewable_energy) Renewable energy - Wikipedia] ==Science -> Social systems -> Concrete phenomena -> Current state of our world and its future -> Ecological breakdown risk -> Climate change -> Solutions -> Low carbon economy== [[Low-carbon economy - Wikipedia](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Low-carbon_economy) Low-carbon economy wiki] ==Science -> Social systems -> Concrete phenomena -> Current state of our world and its future -> Ecological breakdown risk -> Climate change -> Solutions -> Adaptation== If this gets worse and worse, we might have to adapt. ==Science -> Social systems -> Concrete phenomena -> Current state of our world and its future -> Ecological breakdown risk -> Climate change -> Solutions -> Adaptation -> Cooling homes and city infrastructure== ==Science -> Social systems -> Concrete phenomena -> Current state of our world and its future -> Breakdown of fragile essencial infrastructure risk== We've seen covid or boat getting stuck in Suez canal, causing chaos in our long fragile supply chains. War with russia lead to europe energy crisis because of gas. ==Science -> Social systems -> Concrete phenomena -> Current state of our world and its future -> Breakdown of fragile essencial infrastructure risk -> Food and water scarity== ==Science -> Social systems -> Concrete phenomena -> Current state of our world and its future -> Breakdown of fragile essencial infrastructure risk -> Food and water scarity -> Preventing -> Sustainable strong agriculture== ==Science -> Social systems -> Concrete phenomena -> Current state of our world and its future -> Breakdown of fragile essencial infrastructure risk -> Food and water scarity -> Preventing -> Natural pandemics== Assuming covid wasn't a lab leak, Covid 2? ==Science -> Social systems -> Concrete phenomena -> Current state of our world and its future -> Breakdown of fragile essencial infrastructure risk -> Food and water scarity -> Preventing -> Bioweapons== Creating bioweapons is cheaper and easier each day exponentially with growing open science. [[The Most Dangerous Weapon Is Not Nuclear - YouTube]([The Most Dangerous Weapon Is Not Nuclear - YouTube]([The Most Dangerous Weapon Is Not Nuclear - YouTube](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=9FppammO1zk))) The Most Dangerous Weapon Is Not Nuclear Kurzgesagt – In a Nutshell] ==Science -> Social systems -> Concrete phenomena -> Current state of our world and its future -> Breakdown of fragile essencial infrastructure risk -> Food and water scarity -> Preventing -> Solutions== Are regulations or monitoring the key? ==Science -> Social systems -> Concrete phenomena -> Current state of our world and its future -> Psychological crisis== Many people struggle with their psychology. ==Science -> Social systems -> Concrete phenomena -> Current state of our world and its future -> Teen mental health crisis== Teens all over the world are having higher degrees of mental health problems, mainly girls. [[The Teen Mental Illness Epidemic is International: The Anglosphere]([The Teen Mental Illness Epidemic is International: The Anglosphere]([The Teen Mental Illness Epidemic is International: The Anglosphere](https://jonathanhaidt.substack.com/p/international-mental-illness-part-one))) The Teen Mental Illness Epidemic is International: The Anglosphere] [[The Teen Mental Illness Epidemic is International, Part 2: The Nordic Nations](https://jonathanhaidt.substack.com/p/international-mental-illness-part-two?utm_source=profile&utm_medium=reader2) The Teen Mental Illness Epidemic is International, Part 2: The Nordic Nations] [[The Global Mental Health Crisis: All You Need To Know - YouTube]([The Global Mental Health Crisis: All You Need To Know - YouTube]([The Global Mental Health Crisis: All You Need To Know - YouTube](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ahxqScHSQQY))) The Global Mental Health Crisis: All You Need To Know - YouTube] [[Why American Teens Are So Sad - The Atlantic](https://www.theatlantic.com/newsletters/archive/2022/04/american-teens-sadness-depression-anxiety/629524/) Why American Teens Are So Sad - The Atlantic] [[Is America suffering a ‘social recession’? | Anton Cebalo | The Guardian](https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2023/jan/02/america-social-recession-less-friends-sex-mental-health) Is America suffering a ‘social recession’? | Anton Cebalo | The Guardian] ==Science -> Social systems -> Concrete phenomena -> Current state of our world and its future -> Social media and media in general crisis== [[Kids who get smartphones earlier become adults with worse mental health](https://jonathanhaidt.substack.com/p/sapien-smartphone-report?utm_source=profile&utm_medium=reader2) Kids who get smartphones earlier become adults with worse mental health] Teen mental health crisis has accelerated when social media got popular in 2012? Maybe those limbic attentional hijacking algorithms maximizing engagement aren't really good for mental health. Movement for meaning has helped facebook realign their objective function slightly more to meaning, even tho is "has" to still maximize engagement because of our economic system with its incentives. [[Rebuilding Society on Meaning (Improved version) - YouTube]([Rebuilding Society on Meaning (Improved version) - YouTube]([Rebuilding Society on Meaning (Improved version) - YouTube]([Rebuilding Society on Meaning (Improved version) - YouTube]([Rebuilding Society on Meaning (Improved version) - YouTube]([Rebuilding Society on Meaning (Improved version) - YouTube](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=hZpKdfbrd6o)))))) Rebuilding Society on Meaning] ==Science -> Social systems -> Concrete phenomena -> Current state of our world and its future -> Loneliness crisis== [[Understanding America’s loneliness crisis: Who is lonely and how we can help - Healthy Relationships](https://www.canr.msu.edu/news/understanding-america-s-loneliness-crisis-who-is-lonely-and-how-we-can-help) Understanding America’s loneliness crisis: Who is lonely and how we can help - Healthy Relationships] ==Science -> Social systems -> Concrete phenomena -> Current state of our world and its future -> Meaning crisis== [[What is the Awakening from the Meaning Crisis Series​ - Meaning Crisis Collection](https://www.meaningcrisis.co/the-introduction-to-the-meaning-crisis-series%E2%80%8B/) What is the Awakening from the Meaning Crisis Series- Meaning Crisis Collection] ==Science -> Social systems -> Concrete phenomena -> Current state of our world and its future -> Loss of social cohesion from polarization risk -> Left right culture war==