Causal power inequality means that an agent has more possibilities than other agents - let it be more resources, or economical, technological or cultural power, priveledges. This can be good or bad depending on context: everyone should have access to water if you're a humanist, but not everyone should have access to same amount of money, if you see value in economical competition, where those who succeed in it deserve their wealth. And its caused by different causes: pursuing economical progress based on playing fairly in economic system and producing for example technological value, altruistically or not, or by exploiting the system's loopholes. ===Science -> Humanity -> Phenomena -> Multipolar traps=== This concept from game theory shows up everywhere as we discuss various crises and risks. Multipolar traps aka Moloch is a risk that is under lots of other risks driving lots of crises. Moloch is the personification of the forces that coerce competing individuals to take actions which, although locally optimal, ultimately lead to situations where everyone is worse off. Moreover, no individual is able to unilaterally break out of the dynamic. The situation is a bad Nash equilibrium. A trap. One example of a multipolar trap, a Molochian dynamic, is a Red Queen race between scientists who must continually spend more time writing grant applications just to keep up with their peers doing the same. Through unavoidable competition, they have all lost time while not ending up with any more grant money. And any scientist who unilaterally tried to not engage in the competition would soon be replaced by one who still does. If they all promised to cap their grant writing time, everyone would face an incentive to defect. [https://www.lesswrong.com/tag/moloch Moloch definition of LessWrong] More examples are the Prisoner's Dilemma, dollar auctions, overfishing, Malthusian trap, capitalism, two-income trap, agriculture, arms races (technology, nuclear weapons), races to the bottom, education system, science, and government corruption and corporate welfare. ===Science -> Humanity -> Basic infrastructure=== ===Science -> Humanity -> Basic infrastructure -> Food supply chains=== ===Science -> Humanity -> Basic infrastructure -> Energy -> Crisis=== ===Science -> Humanity -> Culture -> Language=== ===Science -> Humanity -> Culture -> Ethics=== Ethical behavior in cultures can be seen as coordination protocols ===Science -> Humanity -> Culture -> Conflicts=== [PaperStream #006.0 ~ Active Inference in Modeling Conflict - YouTube]([PaperStream #006.0 ~ Active Inference in Modeling Conflict - YouTube]([PaperStream #006.0 ~ Active Inference in Modeling Conflict - YouTube](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=HAujw2_ClCM))) ===Science -> Humanity -> Culture -> Coordination, cooperation=== [[Entropy | Free Full-Text | An Active Inference Model of Collective Intelligence]([Entropy | Free Full-Text | An Active Inference Model of Collective Intelligence]([Entropy | Free Full-Text | An Active Inference Model of Collective Intelligence]([Entropy | Free Full-Text | An Active Inference Model of Collective Intelligence]([Entropy | Free Full-Text | An Active Inference Model of Collective Intelligence](https://www.mdpi.com/1099-4300/23/7/830))))) An Active Inference Model of Collective Intelligence] For coordination to occur, we must have nonconflicting or shared goal spaces, which we do as humans - maslow hiearchy of needs. And ability to infer states of others - understanding perspectives of others via dialogs, multiperspectivity, empathy, compassion. ===Science -> Humanity -> Culture -> Inequality=== Depending on your political viewpoint, this can be good or bad. A humanist sees all human beings as equal. ===Science -> Humanity -> Culture -> Inequality -> Among races=== ===Science -> Humanity -> Culture -> Inequality -> Among cultures=== ===Science -> Humanity -> Culture -> Inequality -> Status=== ===Science -> Humanity -> Culture -> Inequality -> Solutions -> Bottom up transformation=== ===Science -> Humanity -> Culture -> Inequality -> Solutions -> Top down influence=== ===Science -> Humanity -> Culture -> Parenting -> Crisis=== ===Science -> Humanity -> Culture -> Mental health and loneliness crisis Young people, mainly teen girls, are experiencing [The Global Mental Health Crisis: All You Need To Know - YouTube]([The Global Mental Health Crisis: All You Need To Know - YouTube]([The Global Mental Health Crisis: All You Need To Know - YouTube](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ahxqScHSQQY))) [The Teen Mental Illness Epidemic Began Around 2012](https://jonathanhaidt.substack.com/p/the-teen-mental-illness-epidemic) [The Teen Mental Illness Epidemic is International: The Anglosphere]([The Teen Mental Illness Epidemic is International: The Anglosphere]([The Teen Mental Illness Epidemic is International: The Anglosphere](https://jonathanhaidt.substack.com/p/international-mental-illness-part-one))) [Here are 13 Other Explanations For The Adolescent Mental Health Crisis. None of Them Work.](https://jonathanhaidt.substack.com/p/13-explanations-mental-health-crisis) [America has a loneliness epidemic. Here are 6 steps to address it : NPR]([America has a loneliness epidemic. Here are 6 steps to address it : NPR]([America has a loneliness epidemic. Here are 6 steps to address it : NPR]([America has a loneliness epidemic. Here are 6 steps to address it : NPR]([America has a loneliness epidemic. Here are 6 steps to address it : NPR](https://www.npr.org/2023/05/02/1173418268/loneliness-connection-mental-health-dementia-surgeon-general))))) ===Science -> Humanity -> Culture -> Mental health and loneliness crisis -> Causes -> Social media=== When social media optimize for limbic attentional hijacking, When young girls see AI perfected super pretty top of the class girls, what could go wrong in their brain? ===Science -> Humanity -> Culture -> Mental health and loneliness crisis -> Causes -> Social media -> Solutions -> Not using destructive social media collectively=== Those who create social media know very well all the psychological tricks to catch human attention and do limbic hijacking, it's very asymmetric. ===Science -> Humanity -> Culture -> Mental health and loneliness crisis -> Causes -> Social media -> Solutions -> Regulations=== ===Science -> Humanity -> Culture -> Mental health and loneliness crisis -> Causes -> Social media -> Solutions -> Transforming economical incentives=== ===Science -> Humanity -> Culture -> Mental health and loneliness crisis -> Causes -> Inequality=== ===Science -> Humanity -> Culture -> Mental health and loneliness crisis -> Causes -> Donbar number hypothesis=== We lived in donbar number sized tribes for most of our evolutionary history. Is our current system not supporting this as much causing loneliness? ===Science -> Humanity -> Culture -> Overall health crisis=== ===Science -> Humanity -> Culture -> Overall health crisis -> Causes -> Western diet=== ===Science -> Humanity -> Culture -> Overall health crisis -> Causes -> Not enough excercise=== ===Science -> Humanity -> Culture -> Overall health crisis -> Causes -> Too much comfort=== ===Science -> Humanity -> Culture -> Overall health crisis -> Causes -> Toxins=== ===Science -> Humanity -> Culture -> Cultural cohesion breakdown risk=== Accelereating plarization not only because of social media and accelerating deepfake technology by AI can cause harm on this level. ===Science -> Humanity -> Environment -> Crisis -> Solutions -> Regenerative economy=== Sustainably monetizing tree not as individual worth from wood but as collective. ===Science -> Humanity -> Environment -> Crisis -> Solutions -> Regulations=== ===Science -> Humanity -> Economy=== The current economic system was a solution to no wars happening after WW2, where growth was not mediated by wars but by exponentially growing GDP of economies. ===Science -> Humanity -> Economy -> Focus on competition=== More like USA. Healthcare is less affordable for the lowest class, but if wealth is gotten ethically, it can be seen as in some sense deserved even from economically right leaning humanitarian perspective. ===Science -> Humanity -> Economy -> Focus on equality=== More like EU. More healthcare and social support for all, but less economic oppurtunities, so lots of startups migrate to America's San Francisco Bay Area. ===Science -> Humanity -> Economy -> Alternatives to money -> Virtual points in games=== In abundance, we still want meaning, lets play virtual games. We can maximize anything. Status? Kindness? Knowledge? ===Science -> Humanity -> Biorisk -> Natural pandemics=== ===Science -> Humanity -> Biorisk -> Bioweapons=== Creating bioweapons is cheaper and easier each day exponentially with growing open science. [[The Most Dangerous Weapon Is Not Nuclear - YouTube]([The Most Dangerous Weapon Is Not Nuclear - YouTube]([The Most Dangerous Weapon Is Not Nuclear - YouTube](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=9FppammO1zk))) The Most Dangerous Weapon Is Not Nuclear Kurzgesagt – In a Nutshell] ===Science -> Humanity -> Biorisk -> Bioweapons -> Solutions -> Monitoring=== ===Science -> Humanity -> Biorisk -> Bioweapons -> Solutions -> Regulations=== ===Science -> Humanity -> Technology=== ===Science -> Humanity -> Technology -> Arms races=== Every technology is subject to arms races. Companies wanting to be first with their product on the markets and ignoring sustainability and safety to a big degree when not regulated. Nationstate superpowers wanting to be the first with the newest most powerful technology. ===Science -> Humanity -> Technology -> Nuclear weapons=== [[[What are the most pressing world problems?]([What are the most pressing world problems?]([What are the most pressing world problems?]([What are the most pressing world problems?](https://80000hours.org/problem-profiles/))))nuclear-security/ Nuclear war - 80,000 Hours] Nuclear war - 80,000 Hours] As tensions increase, nuclear war gets more probable. ===Science -> Humanity -> Technology -> Nuclear weapons -> Solutions -> Diplomacy=== ===Science -> Humanity -> Technology -> Electronics=== ===Science -> Humanity -> Technology -> Computers=== ===Science -> Humanity -> Technology -> Artificial intelligence=== ===Science -> Humanity -> Technology -> Artificial intelligence -> Safety=== [Managing AI Risks in an Era of Rapid Progress](https://managing-ai-risks.com/) [[2306.12001] An Overview of Catastrophic AI Risks]([[2306.12001] An Overview of Catastrophic AI Risks]([[2306.12001] An Overview of Catastrophic AI Risks]([[2306.12001] An Overview of Catastrophic AI Risks](https://arxiv.org/abs/2306.12001)))) [What are the most pressing world problems?]([What are the most pressing world problems?]([What are the most pressing world problems?]([What are the most pressing world problems?](https://80000hours.org/problem-profiles/)))) ===Science -> Humanity -> Technology -> Artificial intelligence -> Safety -> Like nuclear weapons=== ===Science -> Humanity -> Technology -> Artificial intelligence -> Safety -> Like cyberweapons=== ===Science -> Humanity -> Technology -> Artificial intelligence -> Safety -> Like internet=== ===Science -> Humanity -> Technology -> Artificial intelligence -> Safety -> Like scissors=== ===Science -> Humanity -> Technology -> Artificial intelligence -> Safety -> Controllability=== ===Science -> Humanity -> Technology -> Artificial intelligence -> Safety -> Solutions -> Alignment=== Check technical discussion on AI alignment earlier in this book. One can argue that AI alignment only shows already existing problems in our society, such as humans not having coherent moral framework (Utilitarianism is the best attempt to make coherent formal ethical model without contradictions), but we can aim for some global avarage, as ChatGPT does with RLHF. We can generalize AI alignment problem ===Science -> Humanity -> Technology -> Artificial intelligence -> Solutions -> Cultural, economical, technological, governmental integration=== AI safety is not only technological problem, but also cultural (aligning, intergrating AI), philosophical (what even is ethics), governance problem and so on. list of AI risks, probabilities of risks, solutions ot them unpredictable potentially dangerous capabilities [Sign in - Google Accounts](https://keep.google.com/u/0/#NOTE/1QKcBp-1bqbcgY7tQF7t9lE0s-71uJwE1mbginqiHYGHik72tDZ-sb9fpU9M7UZwq-E8a) fast take off slow take off ===Science -> Humanity -> Technology -> Progress in science, healthcare, technology, economy=== ===Science -> Humanity -> Technology -> Externalities, sustainability=== ===Science -> Humanity -> Technology -> Automation -> Boring jobs=== ===Science -> Humanity -> Technology -> Automation -> Meaningful activities=== Will we find new ones? ===Science -> Humanity -> Technology -> Automation -> Abundance=== Automation and AI can make boring jobs obsolete and give enough resources for free for every being. The earth already supports possibility of resource abundance for all, but is it feasible in our current system and its nature? ===Science -> Humanity -> Technology -> Automation -> Inequality=== Or automation can accelerate productivity, richer will get richer, poor will get poorer even faster, people will fight AIs on the job market. Hopefully this extreme scenario won't happen. Maybe something in the middle of this one and the bottom one will happen, just like with industrial revolution. ===Science -> Humanity -> Technology -> Automation -> Inequality -> Solutions -> Regulations=== ===Science -> Humanity -> Technology -> Automation -> Inequality -> Solutions -> Transforming economical incentives bottomup=== ===Science -> Humanity -> Technology -> Automation -> Inequality -> Solutions -> Sustainable economy=== Economy that fundamentally doesn't support unsustainable dynamics - externalities, environment, social stability,... Longer games have to be played than short term profit. ===Science -> Humanity -> Technology -> Open source=== Shold technology be open source? ===Science -> Humanity -> Technology -> Open source -> Cons=== More people have access to potentially too powerful tools that can cause damage ===Science -> Humanity -> Technology -> Open source -> Pros=== Pros: more people have access to potentially too powerful tools that can cause benefit, minimizing concetration of knowledge and power ===Science -> Humanity -> Technology -> Progress=== Should progress be faster? More potential for both benefit for collective abundance and harm from externalities, misuse by bad agents, accidents, uncontrollability,... ===Science -> Humanity -> Governance=== ===Science -> Humanity -> Governance -> History=== In history we went from tribal wars to monarchies and much more, you can Google all entities mentioned here [[The History of the World: Every Year - YouTube]([The History of the World: Every Year - YouTube](https://youtu.be/-6Wu0Q7x5D0)) The History of the World: Every Year - Youtube], where each entity, like kingdoms, empires, states and so on, can be seen as different sociocultural economic technological interacting Markov blankets. [History of the World Countryballs - YouTube]([History of the World Countryballs - YouTube](https://youtu.be/JJpr8m3Kmhk)) [FUTURE OF WORLD: 2023-10 000 - YouTube]([FUTURE OF WORLD: 2023-10 000 - YouTube](https://youtu.be/930mr7AQNAo)) [Ultimate Alternate Future Of The World [Perfected] Map 2020 - 20001 究極版・空想世界未来地図 REUPLOADED IN 2022 - YouTube]([Ultimate Alternate Future Of The World [Perfected] Map 2020 - 20001 究極版・空想世界未来地図 REUPLOADED IN 2022 - YouTube](https://youtu.be/ocV2QInXUxw)) ===Science -> Humanity -> Governance -> Political compass=== The political compass is a multi-axis political model used to label or categorize political ideologies. ===Science -> Humanity -> Governance -> Political compass -> Economic axis=== Left-Right (Economic) Axis: This axis represents economic ideologies. The left side (often represented in red) typically signifies socialist or communist ideologies, advocating for more government control or regulation of the economy, wealth redistribution, and public ownership of resources. The right side (often in blue) represents capitalist or free-market ideologies, advocating for less government intervention in the economy, private ownership, and free-market principles. ===Science -> Humanity -> Governance -> Political compass -> Social axis=== Authoritarian-Libertarian (Social) Axis: This axis represents views on personal and social freedoms. The top of the axis (authoritarian) indicates a preference for more controlled or regulated social environments, where the government has a significant role in dictating or influencing social behavior. This can include support for strict law enforcement, traditional values, and centralized power. The bottom of the axis (libertarian) represents a preference for individual liberty, personal choice, and minimal government intervention in private life. When these axes intersect, they form four quadrants: ===Science -> Humanity -> Governance -> Political compass -> Authoritarian Left=== Authoritarian Left: This quadrant combines economic left-wing views with authoritarian social policies. It might include support for a planned economy alongside a preference for controlled social order and centralized power. ===Science -> Humanity -> Governance -> Political compass -> Authoritarian Right=== Authoritarian Right: This quadrant combines economic right-wing views with authoritarian social policies. It often includes support for a free-market economy along with a desire for a structured social order, possibly with traditional values. ===Science -> Humanity -> Governance -> Political compass -> Libertarian Left=== Libertarian Left: This quadrant combines left-wing economic views with libertarian social policies. It typically includes support for a more egalitarian economic system (like socialism) coupled with a strong emphasis on personal freedoms and civil liberties. ===Science -> Humanity -> Governance -> Political compass -> Libertarian Right=== Libertarian Right: This quadrant combines right-wing economic views with libertarian social policies. It often includes support for a free-market economy along with a high degree of personal and social freedom, minimal government intervention, and individualism. [Imgur: The magic of the Internet](https://imgur.com/Zf8Uedk) [Imgur: The magic of the Internet](https://imgur.com/JMtxc8b) ===Science -> Humanity -> Governance -> Present state=== ===Science -> Humanity -> Governance -> Present state -> Economical axis=== Left (More State Control): Many countries in the world, especially those in the developing world or with socialist leanings, favor stronger state involvement in the economy. This includes aspects like welfare systems, state-owned enterprises, and economic planning. Right (More Market Freedom): On the other hand, the global trend, particularly in developed countries and emerging economies, has been leaning towards free-market capitalism. This includes policies that favor privatization, deregulation, and open markets. ===Science -> Humanity -> Governance -> Present state -> Social axis=== Authoritarian: Several regions and countries exhibit authoritarian tendencies, where governments exert substantial control over many aspects of life, restrict freedoms, and maintain power through centralized control. Libertarian: Conversely, many countries, especially in the West, prioritize individual liberties, democracy, and personal freedoms, promoting a more libertarian approach. I'm gonna focus mainly on USA, Europe, China, Russia and India, as those are the biggest players in AI. Middle East, Africa, South America, Oceania or rest of Asia are also big players that are very diverse politically, you can look into them separately. ===Science -> Humanity -> Governance -> Present state -> United States of America===